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Saturday, June 13, 2015

Anyone want a junior mine engineer job?


Anyone want to work for Dalradian?

Infomine - junior mine engineer wanted.

About the Job:

  • This is an exciting opportunity to join Dalradian Gold Limited as a key member of the Project Development team.
  • Dalradian Gold Limited is a subsidiary of a Canadian public company and is involved in the exploration and development of the Curraghinalt Gold Project.
  • Based in Gortin, Co. Tyrone, and reporting to the Mine Engineer, the successful candidate will be responsible for engineering works.
  • This role is subject to successful completion of a 6 month probationary period.
Duties:
  • Produce short term mining plans
  • Daily interaction with production geologists to maintain a sound understanding of the tonnes and grade being extracted
  • Daily interaction with underground workers to monitor progress and consumables consumption
  • Daily interaction with surveyors to ensure mine plans are understood and marked-up on time
  • Produce production layouts for development
  • Produce longhole stoping plans, to include sections
  • Maintain mine drawings and drawings for Emergency Response Plan
  • Assist in the 3D modelling of ore bodies, mine workings, and stopes
  • Constant updates of the short term mine plan with respect to the long term mine plan
  • Period end volumetric and linear advance reports
  • Ventilation and air quality surveys and balance
  • Daily maintenance of the Key Performance Indicators sheet
  • Other ad hoc duties not covered above that may be assigned during the course of employment.

Sounds a bit much for a company just doing a bulk sample but what do I know.

A bunch of people speculating about metals


Here's Cookie, Kaiser, Eric Coffin and some other bozos talking about which metals they think have the most upside in 2015:



Goddammit they're all still going on about zinc.

At least Coffin mentions your anium. I guess he likes the oldies.


Some Saturday reads


Here's some weekend reading:


New Deal Demoncrat - patterns of consumer spending show there's no recession near. So quit piddling your panties, Whitey.


Mark Thoma - Krugman on the mutability of wages. It's nice to see academia rewriting its beliefs on minimum wages. Now maybe they can rewrite their first-year economics textbooks so that they're not churning out an army of tens of thousands of neocons every year.


Simon Wren-Lewis - should we aim for budget surpluses? Important point that the clueless tend to ignore:
Firms typically plan to live with permanent debt, because [the debt] has paid for [the firm's] capital. The state has plenty of productive capital. To put the point in distributional terms, if we paid back most government debt within a generation, we would be giving that capital to later generations without them making any contribution towards it.
But even my own prof (a sessional) didn't understand that government spending produces physical and human capital (among other things), so I doubt you'll find many people understanding what you just said, Simon. But it doesn't matter; the situation isn't so complex. Osborne is simply out to destroy the UK the way Brownback destroyed Kansas.


Uneasy Money - some thoughts on secular stagnation. Here, he defines SecStag as a condition of flattened labour productivity. Well, productivity per worker is entirely dependent on physical capital per worker and human capital per worker: so who in the US has been spending on physical and human capital? Governments have cut capex and education spending to the bone, corporations are funneling their money into buybacks and buyouts, and real estate & finance have drawn too large a share of the investment pie into nonproductive assets.

So basically, the productivity flop is entirely the result of neocon ideology.


CK Murray - Adam Smith's pin factory and the division of labour. Adam Smith's pin factory example of "division of labour" is bullshit, and here's why:
people can equally divide their own labour across different tasks through time. The 18 distinct operations Smith recounts could just as easily be conducted by the same labourer on 18 different days to generate the same output per person over an 18 day period as in the case where labour is divided between workers.
The problem with Smith's story arises because economists, for the past several hundred years, have been incapable of working with any model that has a t in it, because they are shitty at calculus.

Friday, June 12, 2015

A couple Friday reads


WSJ RTE - yeah so the US economy didn't contract in Q1 after all sorry.

New Deal Demoncrat - the US consumer comes roaring back.

Quit piddling your panties and buy the damn Nasdaq, Whitey.


Friday videos: more summer pop with Charli XCX


Here's Charli XCX again, except in this video she says naughty words:



Happy Loving Day


It was 48 years ago today that, by striking down the Racial Integrity Act of 1924 in the case of Loving v. Virginia, the US Supreme Court made it legal for people of different races to be married to each other in the United States.

Yeah, no seriously, it was illegal until 1967.

In fact, Alabama still had a law against mixed-race marriage on the books until 2000, despite the Supreme Court's decision. It finally got removed through a ballot initiative, where an amazing 60% voted in favour of removal.

Progress, eh?


Thursday, June 11, 2015

New all time lows in miners: here's what you need to know


Yo mama:


My god Petey, you guys really suck.

Goldflorp:


My god Chuckie, you guys really suck too.

some news and insightful market commentary, now with less kittens


Reminder to votinate while you still have time!

Meanwhile, on a day when gold goes down by exactly as much as the US dollar goes up, someone decides to barf GDX.

That's okay.

On a day after two consecutive days of heavy buying of Dalradian, which is a dead giveaway that someone big has taken an interest, the stock still drifts back down because some day-trader douchenozzle wants to dump his 5000 shares at $0.97 instead of holding it for a $2.00 buyout.

That's less okay, but whatever.

Anyway, here's some news:


Calculated Risk - retail sales up 2.7% yoy. And, even better, retail & food service ex-gas is up 5.2% yoy. Know what that looks like to me? Growth.


WSJ RTE - where did all the construction workers go? Quote:
From April 2006 through January 2011, nearly 2.3 million construction jobs–more than 40%–were wiped out. As of last month, the sector was still more than 1.3 million jobs shy of its bubble-era peak.

But if workers are out there, builders can’t seem to find them.

“It is just more and more difficult to get talent,” said Clay Gordon, vice president and chief development officer at Nabholz Construction.
Well, maybe they realized that construction is a boom-and-bust industry, so they've decided to find jobs that actually survive downturns.

Of course, the US government could have retained these workers for the industry by, say, earmarking some stimulus spending for roadway construction and government buildings improvements from 2009 onward; but that's communism, right? So now all the construction companies are learning what it's like to do business in the almighty free market. Screw them, let them pay up for kids and spend a fortune training them.


Reuters - Greece's top court orders reversal of pension cuts. Well of course they do:
A top Greek court ruled on Wednesday that the government should reverse cuts to private sector pensions it made in 2012 as a condition of its bailout agreement with the European Union and IMF, court officials said.

[...]

The country's top administrative court, the Council of State, ruled that the 2012 cuts violated Greek law and the European Convention on Human Rights because they deprived pensioners of the right to a decent life.
Of course the IMF and ECB already don't give a shit about democratic elections, so why should they give a shit about constitutions and human rights conventions now? Again, Greece is better off going into full default and leaving the EZ.


IKN - Chuck's going shopping. So dude thinks the targets might be LSG, DGC or... dafuq, B2Gold? Really? And why not Premier? They're in north Ontario too.


Answering my own question about interest rates



Yesterday I asked

Hey, I'm only in 1st-year macro, but has anyone suggested that maybe interest rates are generationally low because of demographics? Yknow, old people are rich and savers while young people are poor and borrowers, supply & demand means the market clears at a really low interest rate?

Well, lo and behold, the internet gives me an answer:

Fraser Institute - yes, MOMN is right, interest rates are low because of demographics. Quote:

The Bank of Canada apparently surprised the chattering classes and everybody else this week by dropping its benchmark interest rate. The element of surprise, of course, reflected the firmly held convictions by Bank economists, and it would appear many others, that interest rates are now abnormally low and will soon return to more normal levels. In truth, it is the continuing hope/prediction/wish that interest rates would, will or should go higher that is surprising.

The false hopes and predictions of economists arise from the application to current circumstances of a model about economic behaviour that was built for a period of history that had a very different structure. All of the models and most of the theory behind them were built for an epoch of history - the first two-thirds of the 20th century - in which brisk population growth was a constant. While some model architects knew that constant population growth was necessary for the models to work, none of the current users seem to grasp it.

Why does population growth and its fluctuations matter for interest rates? Because it determines the relative number of (net) savers and borrowers in the population of a country. Young people are generally borrowers. Middle-aged and old people are generally savers. The relative number of savers and borrowers and the size of their need for one or the other have a determinative impact on the market for loanable funds.

In a steadily growing population, the largest cohort of people is the most recently born and therefore borrowers predominate and interest rates have to be high enough to temper demands of borrowers and encourage savers to do more. Constantly growing populations create a "savers market" where savers can select from a sea of qualified borrowers. If the population growth falters, stalls or declines the balance of saving and borrowing activity changes and the role of interest rates has also to change.

In the case where population growth falls and then ceases, like say Japan or Germany, or most of the EU, the largest population cohorts will be those that have been associated with the years of greatest population growth. As those largest cohorts age, they become the net savers in the country. The fact that the cohorts behind them - the younger borrowing-prone groups - are relatively smaller than in the past means that there are fewer opportunities for savers to deploy their savings. The loanable funds market becomes a "borrowers market." In such a market, interest rates fall to encourage more borrowing and to discourage saving.

I like this Michael Walker guy. First, he realizes that different periods of history have different economic characteristics; second, he paid attention in first-year macro when they taught about the market for loanable funds!

Now if only the "chattering classes" with blogs could understand this, instead of blathering on about a secret conspiracy by the Fed!


Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Some more reading


This is my last Intro Macro class. Then we do a review class, then the exam next week, then I'm off to Intro Micro and a calculus class through July.

I'm thinking of just doing a basic BA instead of an Honours BA... the only difference is the Honours programme teaches you a shit-ton of econometrics so you can be cheap labour for a prof for 5 years. Forget it, girlie, that's not for me.

Seems like I can take a pile of international trade classes in winter; and even better, I'll only be at school while the sun's up, which is great when it's dead of fucking winter with a -30 wind chill.

Anyway, here are some news stories:


Reuters - India's CAD drops to 0.2% of GDP. And just like that Modi has no reason to beat up on gold anymore. Now maybe he can figure out how to get his clusterfuck of a country to produce goods for export.

Vox EU - inflation expectations spur consumption. For durables, anyway. Hey, I wonder if inflation expectations have anything to do with business investment too?

Mark Thoma - interest rates: natural or artificial? Hey, I'm only in 1st-year macro, but has anyone suggested that maybe interest rates are generationally low because of demographics? Yknow, old people are rich and savers while young people are poor and borrowers, supply & demand means the market clears at a really low interest rate?

Mainly Macro - the latest IMF paper on debt. This is funny, because I've been reading Stiglitz's stories about the stupidity of the IMF. It doesn't matter what IMF economists say; what matters is the opinion of the plutocrats who control the IMF.

Conversable Economist - on electricity in Africa. Some pretty mind-boggling stats:
595 million Africans live in countries where electricity availability per person is sufficient to only light a single 100-watt light bulb continuously for less than two months.
And what's more, I doubt you'll see the investment in electrical infrastructure until people in Africa quit murdering each other by the millions.

Though the argument can be made that centralized electrical infrastructure is so 20th-century. Decentralization and microgeneration is the future, exactly the same as it is for telephony.


Michael Shaoul on BNN



BNN - Michael Shaoul. He's still interested in buying Japan despite how their market tends to wilt every year after June:


Tuesday, June 9, 2015

It's true what they say about antisocial media


Dilbert:




Some news, now with more swearing


I got my first pair of bifocals today, and boy am I ornery. Now go read this news while I go out and yell at a cloud:


WSJ RTE - job openings rise to highest on record. Hey, WSJ? This article doesn't agree with your article on how the "business roundtable" clowns say they don't want to hire anyone. Maybe one of these two articles is fact, and the other one is right-wing propaganda? You might wanna look into that.


Calculated Risk - on the labour force participation rate. Quote:
Every month, with the release of the employment report, we see commentary that says "the labor force participation rate is at or near a 30 year low". Duh! That was expected based on demographics and is not worth reading (Note: the participation rate might move sideways for a couple of years, but is projected to decline for another decade or more).
So quit your worrying.


WSJ RTE - global economic news coverage starting to mention inflation again. That's good, maybe we can see gold go up now?


Calculated Risk - NFIB small biz optimism index increased in May. Well, if the Business Roundtable CEOs are actually cutting back on investment and hiring, and not just bitching about having the Democrats in power, then I guess the small businesses can march in and steal all their market share.


WSJ RTE - upbeat small business owners say sales are picking up. Again, WSJ, you fucking clowns are contradicting your own articles.


New Deal Demoncrat - the pied piper of doom is still an idiot. Hey NDD, it just so happens that Wolf Richter, that "some guy on the west coast", regularly gets his ignorant drivel reprinted at Business Insider. So don't go thinking BI is anything more than the journalistic equivalent of a stream of piss.


Economic Policy Institute - young black grads face how much unemployment now? Quote:
As shown in the charts below, 23.0 percent of young black college graduates are currently underemployed, compared with 22.4 percent of young Hispanic college grads and 12.9 percent of white college grads.
And that's with the US at or near supposed "full employment" or "NAIRU". So obviously there is a nontrivial, mathematically significant portion of the remaining "structural unemployment" that can be attributed directly to racism. I eagerly await the first time I hear any fucking university professor admitting this.


Econospeak - you know who else had a German name and talked about exterminating people? For those of you who take Ludwig von Mises seriously, here's a little quote:
The vain arrogance of the literati and Bohemian artists dismisses the activities of the businessmen as unintellectual moneymaking. The truth is that the entrepreneurs and promoters display more intellectual faculties and intuition than the average writer and painter. The inferiority of many self-styled intellectuals manifests itself precisely in the fact that they fail to recognize what capacity and reasoning power are required to operate successfully a business enterprise.

The emergence of a numerous class of such frivolous intellectuals is one of the least welcome phenomena of the age of modern capitalism. Their obtrusive stir repels discriminating people. They are a nuisance. It would not directly harm anybody if something would be done to curb their bustle or, even better, to wipe out entirely their cliques and coteries.
Now I see why he and Ayn Rand got along so well - he was as much a malignant narcissist as she was.


Monday, June 8, 2015

Bernie Sanders quote

 
"A decent nation is not one in which 'survival of the fittest' reigns. It is one in which we care about the most vulnerable people among us. We cannot give tax breaks to billionaires and large corporations while having the highest rate of childhood poverty in the industrialized world and more and more seniors living in economic misery. That is not a moral society. It must change." - Bernie Sanders

Yeah well good luck with that buddy.


Three charts for the US, and another one that matters more


$VIX:


Is that just put-buying to cover for summer vacation? Or is there really a building fear due to an imminent OMG 0.25% rate increase?

$TRAN:


That just looks horrible, and the turn-around at the Bollinger mean last week suggests more downside to come.

I guess goods aren't going to be transported across the US anymore.

$SOX:


Well that's a failed breakout if ever I saw one. Too bad for the bozo who invests based on semis, eh?

The problem in the past couple weeks was there were so many divergences in the US market across various sectors that it looked like we were either setting up for a new upleg or setting up for a new downleg, depending on which chart you looked at.

I guess with all the clowns demanding a 10% correction (and we already had one in September 2014, if you remember America was going to be exterminated by Ebola), the market is being pushed into giving us one.

Oh well. Personally, when it comes to the US, I prefer looking at this chart:

Let's catch up on the news


US still doesn't want to move higher, and Japan is being sold off by Whiteys who hate their fantastic GDP data. With that in mind, here's the news:


New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. I'm actually beginning to question whether some of the indicators NDD follows are worthless bullshit. Baltic Dry is a great example, as is steel. Frankly, I put more weight in things like tax withholding.

Calculated Risk - hotels on pace for record occupancy in 2015. Therefore the US must be in danger of collapse! Sell sell sell!

Bespoke - the bullshit market continues. Less than 42% of S&P 500 stocks are above their SMA(50). So is it a good time to buy, then?

Calculated Risk - prime working age growing again. As an aside, demographics were what caused the increasing interest rates and inflation of the 60s-70s. Basically, there was more demand for loanable funds than there was supply. This time, there's an incredible supply of loanable funds, and little demand. Remember that whenever you're reading about "secular stagnation".

IKN - the PWC 2014 mining review. For people who actually want to read analysis instead of just trading on the chart.

Mining.com - trouble brewing in South Africa's mining sector. They're all going to go on strike. South Africa's a meaningless backwater in the modern gold mining world, but I'm sure Americans don't know this.

Economist's View - Krugman on Texas. As it turns out, Texas has been no economic miracle. It just made money off oil, and Perry just wasn't stupid and incompetent enough to turn that into a disaster: until now that the shine has come off the oil industry. Kinda like Alberta. And thus, you might reasonably expect that Texas will swing Democrat in 2016. At that point, it's goodbye Republicunts forever.

Slate - forcing low-wage workers to sign noncompetes is vicious and stupid. Seriously? A guy who makes sandwiches is asked to sign a noncompete? And clowns like Mankiw still try to push the fantasy that labour is a market with perfect competition?


A mistake in this weekend's IKN


For those of you who are IKN subscribers, note there is an error on p.16, last paragraph:

Blaise Pascal was not the former president of Burkina Faso.

That is all.


Sunday, June 7, 2015

This guy's almost as bad as those fucking sea lions




I made him go away by deleting his comments without reading them.



More on the monsoon


Economic Times - Skymet forecasts normal monsoon. Quote:

"Yes, it is true that El Nino is linked to poor Monsoon rains in the Indian sub-continent and 60 per cent of all evolving El Nino years are droughts. Since 2000, all drought years (2002, 2004, 2009, 2014) have been in evolving El Nino years. But, there are exceptions.

"We have had four El Nino years from 1953 to 1963 and all the four years witnessed normal or above normal rainfall. Second, if the El Nino episode is a continuing El Nino from last year, the monsoon in the second year does not fail as often as it fails in the first year of evolution. 2014 was a year that had an evolving El Nino and had a drought (88 per cent of the LPA). The El Nino of 2015 is continuing from last year. It is less likely to fail," Jatin Singh, Skymet CEO, said in a blog on its website.

In its February forecast, the Skymet had said India would have a normal monsoon with rainfall of 104 to 100 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

He also added "climatologically", back to back droughts are rare in nature and, in the last 140 years, it has been witnessed only four times - in 1904-05, 1965-66, and 1985-86-87.

"The previous year experienced drought due to an evolving El Nino and this year is most likely to receive normal Monsoon rains," Singh said.

Another important factor, which Skymet pointed to for having a normal monsoon, was the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is positive this year, and this can help counter the El-Nino phenomena.

The IOD refers to a phenomenon in the equatorial waters of the Indian Ocean. It is defined by the difference in the sea surface temperature between the two areas - a western pole near the Arabian Sea and an eastern pole closer to the Bay of Bengal.

If the sea surface temperature of the western end rises above normal and becomes warmer than the eastern end, it leads to a positive IOD.

"This condition is favourable for the Indian Monsoon and carries the potential to somewhat neutralize the adverse effect of El Nino. I believe in looking closer home and would like to give more weightage to the systems in the Indian Ocean. There are indications that the Arabian Sea will be warm throughout the monsoon months, leading to sufficient convection and thereby, enhancing the Monsoon rains.

"The year 1997 was a strong El Nino year but due to a positive IOD we received normal rains to the tune of 102 per cent of the LPA. In other words a positive IOD might insulate us from the El Nino. I think that is what is happening here. The year 1987 was also a strong El Nino year, which brought drought in India. Most of the weather agencies across the world are possibly relating this year to 1987 but, I think 2015 is more like 1997," he added.

But you go ahead and keep selling gold based on interest rates, Whitey!