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Saturday, December 13, 2014

Another blast from the past: Satanic pony mutilations on Dartmoor!


In anticipation of St. Winebald's Day, which is not a Satanic holiday but rather the feast day of an unknown German saint, I'd like to repeat this fantastic post of mine about idiot Satanic Ritual Abuse allegations.

Speaking of which, here's a link to an even better freak-out about how stupid British police are using a "Satanist Hunters' Manual" to "hunt" "satan-worshippers".

SAFF - How British police fell for the St. Winebald fakery.

Anyway, on to the past we go:



So, apparently a pony was found dead on Dartmoor.

And the fundamentalist Christians are coming out of the woodwork to give the UK one of their favourite pastimes - a moral panic:

Plymouth Herald - Satanists blamed for horse mutilation and death on Dartmoor.
A Satanic cult has been blamed for the death of a pony which was horrifically mutilated in a ring of fire during a full moon.
Police are investigating after the young male animal had its genitals and right ear sliced off and tongue and eyes cut out - possibly while it was still alive.
As anyone who follows animal mutilation stories can tell you, it's rather more likely that the animal dropped dead, and then later has its grundies and face eaten off post-mortem by scavengers.

If you're an animal, those are the easiest things to chew off from a dead body.

And I'm sorry, but trying to cut off a horse's anything while it's still alive will put you in the hospital or the morgue. Period. My granddad was permanently crippled by one kick from a horse, just cos the horse was having a bad day; imagine how bad even a pony would fuck you up if you were trying to snip his tongue off.

And "in a ring of fire during a full moon"? That's one of those factoids that you have to doubt immediately; after all, did someone really make a ring of fire, and do the police know for certain it died during the full moon? Grass doesn't burn, at least not in a nice well-arranged round-shaped fire. Try it sometime.

But there are all sorts of nutbar Christian fundamentalist wackjobs out there who think there is a secret world-spanning cult of pony-hating (formerly baby-raping) Satanists out there, and they've watched all sorts of movies or videos or shit where some guy makes an actual ring of fire during a full moon. So it's quite likely someone added these stupid facts to the story to make it sound more sinister.

Because they want you to come to church.
Animal welfare officers are investigating but local horse carers believe the butchery was part of an evil occult or Pagan ceremony by Devil worshippers.
Local welfare charities have reported the death to the police and have appealed for the public to be extra vigilant.
Karla McKechnie, Dartmoor's Livestock Protection Officer, said she feared devil worshippers were behind the ritualistic horse killing.
She said: "We do get strange things happening from time to time, normally when its a full moon.
"I've come across strange circles in the ground, boulders used as altars, that sort of thing, but thankfully animal mutilations are rare.
"I suspect its witches or devil worshippers but it's always hard to get to the bottom of it.
"Local horse carers" apparently means one single nutbar named Karla McKechnie. I really fucking hate when a supposed journalist pluralizes "concern" or "belief" of one person to make it seem like it's a mass phenomenon, but that's what happens when journalism school graduates are forsaken in favour of some dumb twit with O-levels who's willing to work for a pittance.

How do I know Karla McKechnie is a fundamentalist wackjob? As we saw back in the Satanic Ritual Abuse Panic days, fundies always tend to conflate "occult" with "Satanic". It's part of the American fundie tradition of calling everything Satanic: yoga, meditation, Hinduism, and hippies doing candle magic stuff from the Witches' Bible Compleat are all Satanic according to these guys. "Satanic" symbols include the peace sign, the pentagram, the Star of David, and probably even the logo on Led Zeppelin IV for all I fucking know.

Basic fact: there are occultists and pagans in England. They don't worship the devil, they don't worship Satan. Even Satanists don't worship Satan: ask one sometime and he'll be happy to explain Satanism to you.

Only stupid American-inspired fundamentalist christians believe that Satanists worship Satan, and that witchy and druidy hippies worship Satan, and that shit even the Catholics worship Satan.

And apparently Karla McKechnie isn't even an actual Veterinary Technician, or whatever it's called over there. Cos if she was, the paper would call her a Veterinary Technician instead of calling her several "horse carers".
Dartmoor and the surrounding countryside in Devon and Cornwall has been dogged by rumours of satanic rituals for years.
Oh good.

One of my favourite topics of study back when I cared about sociology was the Satanic Ritual Abuse panic that happened on the Isle of Lewis a few decades back. Interestingly, it was an isolated community (go find Lewis on a map for fuck's sake), and the "Satanists" were all southerners who had moved up to Lewis for... cheap rent or something, I dunno. So obviously the strange southerners got persecuted as "Satanists". It would have been a great Ph.D. thesis, if only I had thought visiting Lewis was a remotely good idea.

And here we are with another outlying area whose traditions are being trampled upon by an influx of Londoners.

Satanic ritual allegations always pop up in these situations, cos you've got a conservative rural population who feel their traditional way of life is under threat. "Because Satan" is the Christian fundie response.

The fundamentalist preachers from the US move into these areas, and give a few lectures on "how to spot Satanism": the source of the concern in Lewis was (if I remember) eventually traced to one social worker having gone to a "lecture" by fundie wackjobs from the USA who came to Scotland to sow some fear of Satan.

So I guess the fundies have been giving lectures in Cornwall now?
In 2012 a two-year-old horse called Eric belonging to Dawn Jewell, 27, was found mutilated on the day of satanic animal sacrifice.
Half a bee, philosophically, must ipso facto half not be.

(Sorry, needed to inject a comedic break here. If you don't get the Monty Python reference then you're Satanist scum!)
He was found dead in his field in Stithians, near Falmouth, Cornwall, after a full moon with his right eye gouged out, his teeth removed and his genitalia hacked off.
Lots of days of the year that are "after a full moon". More specific, please?

God only knows, maybe there's a feral dog on the moor (I guess there are no wolves in England anymore?) and it finds it easier to hunt during a full moon.

Or maybe the horse just dropped dead and its body was gnawed on by skunks or raccoons or whatever scavengers you lot have in England.

Or maybe some asshole goes around killing horses.
The horrific attack happened on St Winebald Day, a date in the satanic calendar traditionally celebrated with bloody rituals.
Oh holy fuck with honey garlic fuck sauce served with a side order of fuck fries and fuck coleslaw, accompanied by a nice full pint of Guinness in a glass with the word "fuck" written on it in big red letters! This requires Blown-Mind Keanu:



SAINT something-something Day? As in the day of a Christian SAINT?

This is "a date in the Satanic calendar traditionally celebrated with bloody rituals"?!?!?

Satanists worship Catholic saints on Saints' Days?


 Answer: No. No, they don't.

Sure, Walpurgisnacht (another day entirely) is important to a few Satanists somehow, but not because St. Walpurga was accidentally canonized on May Day, and Walpurgisnacht is the May Eve, and that happens to be important as an older pagan holiday being the mid-spring night, cos you can't plant anything before May in northern Europe where it's cold so it's good to keep track of the earliest possible planting day.

Walpurgisnacht is conveniently at the opposite end of the year from All Hallow's Eve, and that's why Satanists care about this completely different day which doesn't have to do with Saint Winebald.

Now... who is St. Winebald? He's some dude. Really, Wikipedia's got nothing. Quote: "abbot of the Benedictine double monastery of Heidenheim am Hahnenkamm, and beyond that we got nothing." The Feast of St. Winibald is Dec 18th. Apparently he lived in the same period as Walpurga and they might have even quaffed mead together. I doubt any Satanist, who "worships Satan", satanically, is going to be looking up Catholic feast days to determine when to perform his next Satanic ritual. Especially dedicating their Satanic ritual on Dartmoor which is Cornish to a dead German abbot.

Especially when you could do even more evil and mayhem by just holding off for 6 fucking days and doing your Satanic giggity on Christmas Eve.

Oh, and by the way, Plymouth Hystericald - Dec 18th is also the day of St. Mawnan of Cornwall. Why aren't you blaming him? I guess cos Winebald sounds more sinister, it being more German and all.

But there are lots of hippies and metalheads out there who think they're druids, and probably would be happy to sacrifice animals because that was the druidy way of doing things, and thus they'd be preserving their ancient Celtic heritage of killing stuff in honour of the Horned God or something. And maybe druids would find it a good idea to do a ritual on the Saint's day of a Cornish priest... cos... I dunno, I'm still drawing a blank.

But I guess blaming it on druidism would be too obvious a slander against the heritage of the Celtic lower classes out there. And if you piss off the lower classes they get mighty nasty. So instead you blame it on "Satanism" and invite the mouth-breathing Cornish to go to some stupid American-style fundie church service where they can be saved from the evil pseudo-papistry of Anglicanism, with their anti-Christ HM Queen Elizabeth II and their false prophet Archbishop of Canterbury - who parenthetically is a Geordie and thus about as far away from God as you can possibly get.

Now, this story was carried elsewhere too:

The Independent - Police investigate possibility that Satanic cult killed and mutilated pony on Dartmoor.

They seem to have copied the Plymouth Herald article verbatim. Except they probably have a Catholic typesetter who realizes the "St. Winebald Day" angle was a fucking stupid clownish drooling pile of steaming idiocy, so she cut that bit out to make the newspaper look slightly less fucking stupid.

Unfortunately, the Independent's article adds this:
Inspector Oliver told the BBC that his officers would be speaking to "experts in the field as it was not in the normal remit".
The fuck?!? "Experts in the field"? Of what?

I do certainly hope Insp. Oliver means he's going to consult with something like "experts in animal mutilations", and not "experts in Satanic cults". Because sorry dude, you're going to end up getting brainwashed by a bunch of fucktard American fundamentalist wackjobs.

Hey! Insp. Oliver! Want some "expert" stuff on Satanic killings?

Here. Watch this video. It's got a hot blushing Christian teenage chick in a bikini who's playing dead and who has stuff drawn on her body in pen.



And here's another one, where some fundie in a mullet, who hasn't had a real job his entire life, shows you a park where Satanists and homosexuals like to go hand in hand. No tits though.



Insp. Oliver, this is the level of "expert"-ness that you'll find: a bunch of fundies who just fucking make shit up. These guys ain't graduate students from a forensic anthropology programme; they're fundie wackjobs who've maybe read a couple Bob Larson books that hype "the evils of Satanism". Or just watched the videos, like this infomercial:



So you will not, for example, be able to get them to give you primary-source proof from a "Satanic spellbook" that proves that yes, indeed, a Satanist wanting to perform some particular ritual has to draw little pentacles on a chick's boobs just so, it says here on page 172 of Satanic Spells Made Easy for Morons by renowned Satanist author Stanley McSatanstein von Satan.

These "experts" don't do experiments, they don't do statistical analysis, and any lawyer with two brain cells to rub together will shred these fucking Jesus-freak assclowns into mincemeat on the stand if you're ever so fucking stupid as to present them to the court as "expert" witnesses. And then you'll be next up on the stand and that lawyer will make you the laughing stock of the justice system.

Because it's utter bullshit. It's all been made up by fundamentalist Christian wackjobs whose entire purpose is to convert your interestingly-dentitioned halitosis-blessed island fortress nation away from that evil Popery of the Anglican Church, over to fucking Southern Baptism or some such shit. Oh and take all your money.

Because Jesus.

Now here's another English rag covering the story:

Daily Telegraph - Pony mutilated in suspected satanic act in Dartmoor.

Forgive me btw, but I was under the impression that a thing should be said to be on Dartmoor, not in it. Because Dartmoor is a moor, and a moor is a thing that you are said to be on. Like a heath, say. Correct me if I'm wrong. (Of course you can be in Dartmoor if you've been "bunged up in the nick" as they say at HM Prison Dartmoor.)

Anyway, the Telegraph has yet more depth to the story, which makes me wonder if maybe they have a real journalist working for them:
According to experts, the south west has a long association with Satanic groups, some of which still perform sacrifices.
Really? "Experts" again? And these "experts" are in touch with enough "Satanic groups" to know that some of them have given up doing sacrifices?

No. It's not like that at all.

Rather, the "experts" is some dumb crazy chick again, and "know" means she's only making shit up again.
Jenny Thornton, an animal welfare officer on Dartmoor, thought the position of the foal was “sinister” when she was called to examine it later that night.
“Crows take eyes out but animals certainly couldn’t have cut an ear off,” she said. “We have not jumped to any conclusions but it certainly seems that it could have been ritualistic.”
Yes, animals can "cut" an ear off. If the animal was there for a while the ear is easy to gnaw off. Thank you, btw, for noting that the eyes are the first things to go when free food gets set out at night.

And I like your sense of humour, Jenny! "We haven't jumped to any conclusions yet, but LORD SAVE US THE DEMON SATAN AND HIS HORDES HAVE OVERWHELMED US"?

I hope she brings a fucking parachute when she actually does jump to conclusions.

And here's that nutcase fundie Karla McKechnie with her undeserved 1 sentence of fame again:
Karla McKenchie, who has looked after animals on Dartmoor for 13 years, said cult members were obvious suspects.
“When you think it was done under a full moon and the pony was in an arced-out circle that was possibly burnt by candles, I think you could be looking for someone other than just your local Joe Bloggs,” she said.
Ah! Cult members are obvious suspects, and she knows this because she hangs out with animals. There's your fucking "expert" right there.

And she's obviously the one who's added the "circle burned by candles" bullshit to the story.

And interestingly, it's not "just your local Joe Bloggs" - the subtext being that it's some outsider. Because the "OMG Satanists" story, as I noted above, is always ultimately a narrative driven by fear of outsiders.

But wait! There's more!
The police are taking these precedents seriously, and Insp Oliver said the lunar cycle was possibly a factor. “There is a lot of research about the effects of the cycle,” he said.
“As is well known, a full moon does affect people: I’ve been in the control room before where we’ve had two separate people on high buildings threatening to throw themselves off [during a full moon]. Monday was the full moon, so it would be a bit of a coincidence.”
OK, Insp. Oliver is now proven a fucktard. "There is a lot of research about the effects of the [full moon]"?!?! Really? What, you mean "research" as in "conversations with little old ladies in the pub, especially after they've 'ad a few"?

This is what happens when you let low-grade fucking morons become police officers.

And then this paper must have checked out Wikipedia to find some more "experts":
Per Faxneld, an expert in contemporary Satanism at the University of Stockholm, said that full moons were important in Satanist rituals, but that the attack was unlikely to have been carried out by an “established Satanist group”.
Per Faxneld?

He's a Ph.D. student who's into black metal. And he's from Sweden, where the paganist religions are qualitatively very different from England: Odinism is not even remotely like druidism. Now sure, he has actually contributed some to the study of actual real Satanist groups, but this is not the level of "expert" that you would consult in any other field.
He added that “one of the most extreme Satanist groups in the world”, the Order of Nine Angles – which has even called for human sacrifices – is based in Britain. 
Yeah, well... Anton Long aka David Myatt from the ONA became a muslim a while back, and now he's apparently some other sort of thing, so I doubt the ONA had anything to do with this. Especially since the Order of Nine Angles was like 2 guys in a cottage in Shropshire, which is a bit far of a drive to mutilate ponies. But you wouldn't expect that level of investigative journalism from the Daily Telegraph, I guess.

And we'll give the last words to Batshit Karla:
Karla McKenchie thinks such a cult will provide the answer. “I’ve never come across somebody who goes out in the middle of the night, catches ponies and mutilates them,” she said. “When you go start doing that to an animal, you obviously don’t bat for the right side.” 
Yeah... so therefore if you don't bat for the right side you must be a Satanist.

Instead of some bunch of hippies playing druid. Or even just some dumb Cornish teenagers who like getting drunk and killing animals.

Cos all the evil things that happen in the world are the result of Satan, instead of your own fucking stupidity.

This is why I'm always calling for punching someone in the fucking face as the answer to all life's problems.

News: Consumer sentiment skyrockets, gold ETF sees inflows, B2Gold still sucks


A bit more news:

Calculated Risk - preliminary consumer sentiment skyrockets. Really, check out this chart:


For the entirety of the post-2008 US economic malaise, consumer sentiment hasn't gotten this high. Above 94 is a reading that you only get about 10-15% of the time (from this chart, by inspection). Maybe this means inflation is right around the corner? Or maybe it means the consumer side of the US economy is back to firing on all cylinders? Obviously the rational response to this is to puke the S&P 500 another 10%, right?


Reuters - gold ETF sees inflows. If you use the gold ETF as a proxy for speculative interest in gold, then this is good: 5 tons of inflows, annualized, is enough to move the price of the marginal ounce, so let's hope this keeps up. Gold right now is priced near (or below?) the marginal ounce, which means speculative premium has been at zero or negative. And the inflow is good because it might mean that the move up in gold ex-USD has begun to be noticed by market participants.

And if you don't believe in the idea of speculative premium, please 'splain to me how oil can crash from $100 to $50 on no significant change in demand outlook. Was there really a $50 difference in the marginal barrel from demand(t-n) to demand(t)?


Mineweb - Otjikoto sees first pour ahead of schedule. Good news, right? Quote:
In the first five years of its initially planned twelve year mine life, the Otjikoto Mine is expected to produce approximately 141,000 ounces of gold per year at an average cash operating cost of $524 per ounce. For 2015 the anticipated figures are for the new mine to produce between 140,000 to 150,000 ounces of gold at a cash operating cost of approximately US$500 per ounce and all in sustaining costs of approximately $700 per ounce

Pre-development cost estimates of $244 million and deferred stripping estimates of $33 million remain in line with original pre-feasibility study estimates.

In November last year the company announced additional positive drilling results from its exploration program at the Wolfshag zone, adjacent to the planned Otjikoto pit. The company says that these positive results further indicate the potential to outline a higher grade resource that could lead to additional future expansion of production and an increase in the mine life.

Once the planned mill expansion is completed in the third quarter of 2015, B2Gold expects annual gold production at Otjikoto to increase to approximately 200,000 ounces in 2016 and 2017. Gold production would also be enhanced by the development of the Wolfshag zone should this go ahead as indicated.
And still B2 is under $2. Why? Cos everyone's underwater below $2.


Friday, December 12, 2014

Bach on piano deserves a beating


If it's one thing I hate, it's someone defiling JS Bach by playing his music on a piano. Just because the revisionists of classical music spent hundreds of years trying to erase all memory of the harpsichord doesn't mean it's right.

And yes it's Glenn Gould. Ooooo. First he neuters Bach, takes all the emotion out and makes it sound like the output from a Korean playing a Vic20, then he turns around and makes him sound like a bloody Russian romantic. I never liked anything from Glenn Gould.

Instead of posting a rebuttal with yet another repeat of BWV 1065 on proper bloody harpsichords, here's someone playing JSB's contemporary Domenico Scarlatti to show you exactly how brilliant a harpsichord really sounds:



A few flubs but definitely enough power to put the "wimpy instrument" argument to rest forever.

Knowing what you know about JS Bach, don't you think perhaps he would have rather written for this instrument than for an instrument that had only just barely been invented?*

If the music was written for an instrument, you play it on that instrument.



* - leaving aside the argument as to whether Bach really wrote for the clavichord

Two gold charts


GLD:


So a drop below $116.70 or so probably means it drops to the SMA(50) and Bollinger mean at $115.60 or so. If you believe in that TA stuff. But that'd close off the uptrend in the MACD, and that's bad.

GLD:UDN:


$4.76 or so is the horizontal support line from previous pivots. It was tested already last Thursday, so we don't want to see it tested again. As well, the Bollinger mean was tested at the end of November and the EMA(8) provided support since then, so we also don't want the Bollinger mean retested again.

It should be no big deal if the US dollar really is topping. Then again, who knows in this market? Maybe Wall Street Whitey has bought gold as a hedge against market losses... heh heh... heh heh heh... BWAHAHAHAHAAAA!

Sorry.

Anyway, SLV:


At least SLV isn't confirming any weakness in gold.


Comments on US dollar and junk bonds


UUP:


That sure looks like a topping process, don't it? Wonder what Whitey thinks should happen to gold when USD proves it has topped?

HYG:


You know the market's gone nuts when you have to bump your Bollingers out to 3SD.

Things might get dicey if today's print breaks the lower trendline, like it's threatening to do today. Maybe that's what's scaring people? Then again, maybe people need to be reminded of why they call them "junk bonds".

Nobody gets a guaranteed 5% yield, people!


Well there's your tax loss selling


Here, let me show you some charts, this time with some scribbles written on them in crayon so you can actually follow what I'm saying.

GLD:


The uptrend remains. Gold is above its SMA(50). You'd kinda like to see this resolve to the upside. I think my assumption is that you shouldn't see big sells hammering gold, because the people who would put those sells on have realized gold is now going up ex-USD, and the big sells don't help the kind of trade they should be making now.

So gold miners should also be moving up above the SMA(50), right? I mean, that's my thesis, right?

GDXJ:


Nope. Miners still look weak. GLD is 2% above its SMA(50), but the juniors are still about 15% below their SMA(50). No leverage to gold. This divergence only began in late November, and has grown since then.

And I realized last night or this morning (it's all a blur nowadays) that this is probably caused by the tax-loss selling everybody was waiting for.


Friday newsbits


Here's some more stuff:

Bespoke - more on the energy sector crash. Broad US markets are still above the points where they've turned around before. And here's their typical dry analysis:
Shocks to the system like this are not met with enthusiasm by investors, regardless of whether or not falling oil prices may ultimately be good for the economy. For now, it looks like oil is going to need to stabilize for the market to remain in rally mode.
I guess when you add in the Greece and Japan elections, we should expect a bigger selloff today?

New Deal Demoncrat - you can already see the effect of lower oil prices on the consumer. Retail sales are setting new highs. So quit selling the US markets!

Noah Smith - sometimes the markets are stupid. A very interesting modification of efficient market theory, which explains why your high-value stock can continue going down no matter how long and how loud so scream at your screen. Quote:
[...] market efficiency breaks down, because people have to know too much information in order to push a stock’s price to the right level. Instead of just knowing about a stock’s value, they have to know all kinds of things about what other investors know and what other investors are thinking.
In other words,it's not enough that your stock doesn't suck: the entire rest of the market has to clue in, or else your stock will continue sucking.

Reuters - Chinese thinkers recommend 7% growth target. And for those of you who don't know math, 7% this year is one hell of a lot bigger for the world economy than 10% in 2005.

Bloomberg - Mobius says China bull market is just getting started. I wouldn't care what he says, except he's still agreeing with Jim O'Neill - who is smarter than all of us.

Schwab - surging A-shares: what's next? Yeah, Michelle Gibley basically says it might still go up from here, but there might also be a correction. Basically, nothing of value. More Liz-Ann Sonders, less Michelle Gibley, please.

Reuters - lowering inflation improves chances of Indian rate cut. But what India really needs is infrastructure. By the way: I've started reading Piketty, and one interesting factoid I came across already is that India's per-capita output is the same as that in sub-Saharan Africa. Wow. That tells you how backward India still is. You going to continue insisting that Modi can fix this just by waving the magical handbag of Margaret Thatcher?

FT beyond brics - Donbas has been split into pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian enclaves. And now they're all being run by mafia, by the way. But that's okay because the Russian mafia reports directly to Putin. Read Putin's Kleptocracy.

Mining.com - London Mines & Money recap. His review isn't as funny as what mine would have been.

BI - Morgan Stanley on oil cash costs. The marginal barrel is $35-$40. So that's where the price goes when the commodity traders have all existed the market. By the way, the marginal ounce of gold is about where it is right now.

HuffPo - another leak about secret Luxembourg tax deals. Rob a person of $50, you're a thief; rob the people of $50 billion, you're a CEO. What does that make the criminal justice system, other than a system of repression of the proletariat by the capitalist class?

Friday videos - Curve's "Coast is Clear"


Here's Curve:




Thursday, December 11, 2014

Russia sold 123 tons of gold last week?


Um...

BI - Russia selling its central bank gold. Quote:
On Thursday, the Central Bank of Russia announced that gold reserves dropped by $4.3 billion in just one week, reports Vesti Finance.
Billion with a 'b'?

At $1200/oz, 12 fine 14.583 oz to a pound more or less, 2000 pounds to a ton, that's almost 123 tons of gold.

They sold all this in the last week, you say?

As the price went up?

Yeah, I doubt it.

I've been reading Putin's Kleptocracy, and I can assure you that Pooty-poot and his friends know a lot of other things they can do with Central Bank gold other than selling it into the market.

Try again, Elena.


RITHOLTZ STILL HAS NO CLUE ABOUT GOLD: the movie


Ritholtz - creepy bald dude gets Ritholtz to repeat a bunch of Reuters-level idiot talking points about commodities on a video podcast.

1. Seriously, dude, I laugh at how much your explanations sound like the crap written by an intern at Reuters. You really are pulling stuff out your ass when it comes to commodities.

2. Jeff Macke is the creepiest face I've ever seen.

3. The collapse in oil prices has nothing to do with the US dollar, Barry. It has entirely to do with the commodity traders closing up shop and exiting the futures market. From speculative premium you've now gone to speculative discount. 

4. Hey Barry, Econ 101. Find the break-even price of the marginal barrel. There's your natural price. School is fun.

5. Hey Barry, why haven't you noticed that gold has been going up ex-USD? Maybe your problem is you think the US dollar is the only currency in the world?

6. Americans don't buy gold, Barry. Please, for the love of god, read some fucking supply and demand data. Look up which countries have increased their gold demand by a few hundred percent in the past ten years, and then ask yourself whether it's reasonable to assert that this trend should immediately stop.

7. Then please open a fucking history book to the page where leaching doubled gold production in the 90s, and tell me where another such doubling of supply is going to come from to power the next 10-year bear market that you think is going to happen in gold.

8. I'm serious, you look like you're going to die of a heart attack in the next 6 months. Your face is red and puffy and you look like your collar is strangling you. Lose some fucking weight.


Three quick observations before lunchtime


Three quick observations before lunchtime:

1. Both USO and GLD spiked this morning, but it seems USO was the one that the market was happy to sell back down. That seems positive.

2. It seems GDX is leading the metal. Then again, GDX led to the downside in the big pukefest that was yesterday afternoon.

3. HYG is weak today but it seems it's not inspiring people to sell stocks anymore. Maybe they've decided to just ignore it.


FIRST SLAPSTICK SILVER CORP: you won't believe what I'm about to say


Well, the chart is the chart:


Tuesday it went up on volume and broke through its governing EMA(10).

Wednesday it hovered.

Thursday it has begun breaking through its Bollinger mean.

Friday I'm in love?

Who knows. But it seems First Slapstick has finally begun to consider the possibility of hopping off the vomit comet and acting like a stock worth owning.



So does gold give us a retrace, or something more?


Gold chart:


So I guess it's quite okay if gold retraces down to $1203-$1208 or so.

Which I guess is possible if the broad market continues throwing up today, though I don't know how you can beat an Arms index of >3.

Looks like a lot of positions have to get shuffled around for whatever the next broad move is going to be... like, is oil done? Is Japan's market going to continue going nowhere? Has the US dollar finished its advance? All these things might affect gold.

I'll be watching GLD:UDN again today.


Wednesday, December 10, 2014

US MARKETS GET DESTROYED: here's what you need to know


Holy crap, these are two crazy charts.

Dear work:


Dear [Redacted] Consulting:

Since the day you terminated me, your stock is down 15%.

Ha ha you suck.

Sincerely,

no really screw you guys

Correlation skyrockets on the selloffs


HYG did this:


which tanked the markets, making $VIX do this:


and thankfully I cut my losses in the $VIX shorts and ZUB.to earlier this aft. It was seeing the strong correlation between EWJ (did you know the Nikkei isn't open right now? Then why should we see any intraday moves in EWJ?) and HYG (the market's vomit button for the past few months).

Now the gold miners are getting pulled down:


back below the SMA(50). But that's only because every single thing that's tradeable on the NYSE is getting puked right now.

Because gold is still up here:


above its own SMA(50) and not moving anywhere.


What do the Nikkei and high-yield bonds have in common?


Eugh:


So what do the MSCI Japan and high-yield bond ETF have in common?

Um...

Obviously, the answer is that the same people buy and sell them at the exact same time.

No, really. That's all there is.

Some Wednesday news


Here's some reading:

Calculated Risk - job openings up 21% yoy. The US is doing swell. Maybe some people will be able to get some nice raises out of their asshole Nazi pig bosses - or alternately, quit their idiot job for another one that pays 20% more.

New Deal Demoncrat - short leading indicators. 2015 looks okay.

BI - what Syriza stands for. Ooo scary! Sociamalism!

Matt Taibbi - the police in America are becoming illegitimate. Well, that's what you get when your entire damn country votes for a fucking police state, guys. Now you get to learn the lesson that the Germans learned when they supported Hitler for ten long years.

And don't get me started on the torture report. I really don't fucking care. You guys fucking voted for torture. You demanded torture. Now you're suddenly embarrassed? Fuck you, fascist scum. You don't get to beg forgiveness after you turn into animals.


Ritholtz just gave goldbugs the all-clear


I see Ritholtz slammed gold again in his morning news links. So it's all clear for gold.

Hey, fatso! Did you know that 70% of all the copper ever mined is still out there, just waiting to get melted down and sold for scrap? Oh noes sell copper!

Dumb fatass.


Japan rolling over?


EWJ:


Casualty of the present US market rotation?

Or casualty of the possible rollover is US dollar strength?

Choose now!

Noon update on PM miners


BTG and GDXJ melting away, and SLV and GDX losing strength, suggest to me that there might be a drop in the PMs and miners round the corner.

I've actually cut back my position to 33% or so, from the 60% before. Also dumped some DPM.to (wasn't performing) and another half of my HGU.to. And some RIO.

Frankly, the market action looks like a slam is just around the corner.

The uptrend is intact but the overboughtness might get beaten down around here.


TWO CHARTS: First Majestic and First Majestic (wait, what?)


AG:


My opinion on looking at this chart: Yeah, it sucks. It's gotten up to its Bollinger mean, so that's a sensible place for it to turn around and go back down.

Now here's the Canadian ticker:


Spoooookily, it's already above its Bollinger mean here. Punching right through is actually bullish.

This seems significant to me. It means the recent US dollar moves have been large enough to cause distortions in the charts for the miners.

So Americans aren't getting the right price signals.

So this might be something the rest of the world can exploit.


Goldbugs: things to watch in the charts


Things I'm watching;

1. GLD is acting weak, but SLV is disconfirming that weakness with a good move upwards. GLD:UDN also isn't weak.

2. GLD's previous high was yesterday at $118.90, but GDX's previous high in this trend was $20.42 on the close Nov 25th. So that means GDX has catching up to do.

3. GDX is peeking above its own SMA(50), and is outpacing the advances in GLD now. That's good if it keeps going up, but a turnaround might make for a big whipsaw in GDX. The people (like me) counting on making a big profit in miners, if they have any money left, also have learned by now to be the first to the exits on weakness.

3. Watch the crappy stocks to see if they can break their nosedive. For example, First Majestic is actually threatening to break above its Bollinger for the first time in ever. I don't know if it was diving because of heavy insto selling or because of active shorting, but the nosedivers are reaching points where they usually turn around and collapse.

4. Meanwhile B2Gold is about to break above its own SMA(50): that would be a strong signal, considering the SMA(50) is right below that point where every stockholder of the last 4 years is underwater. I still think its chart says B2 has limited upside, but then again Otjikoto.



Cam Hui on yesterday's US market action



Cam Hui
- why yesterday's action was like the October bottom. He goes through his thought process for why he doesn't think there's much more downward motion in store for the US market. It's worth linking to because he also mocks Mister Panty Piddles himself, Josh Brown.

Personally, when I saw banks and R2K stage a big reversal yesterday, I decided to put my cash back into those two sectors of the US economy. There must be a rotation, and those must be the targets. Hey, Cramer says put your money in IWMs to exploit the low oil price, I'd think we should expect a hedgie rotation into IWM for its December seasonality, and banks went up like crazy during the 1995-or-so-can't-be-arsed-to-look-it-up rate hike cycle.

We'll see. Cam Hui's fancy little patented trading model apparently hasn't given off a sell signal, and Steenbarger also doesn't think this is more than a mild rotation, and I'd think by now the robots have gotten re-tuned to avoid puking perfectly good stocks just because of a temporary dive in junk bonds, and I'm sure everyone in the market is selling in fear of another $VIX spike to 30 since it's right there staring at them on the chart, so maybe this is the time to buy.

So I sold half my BTO position (still got the rest of my juniors) and put money into some short VIX, and bought some ZUB.to and XSU.to. Now I'm nearly zero cash.

I still wouldn't be surprised by a bit of a back-off in gold and miners, though. The question, in that case, would be how long and how much. Then again, I think a lot of people are selling PMs and miners right now, and yet GLD and GDX aren't moving down: they're staying quite strong.

We'll see.


GDX just peeked above the SMA(50)


GDX is peeking over the wall to see if all is clear:


And GLD is saying it's okay to come out:


On the one hand it's nice to see GLD sticking fast to its +2SD line, but then again a +2SD advance might be too good to be true and GDX might get its head shot off in a reversal.


Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Dalradian TA playtime


Here's Dalradian:


That's an inverse head and shoulders forming.

Taking $0.48 as the bottom and $0.72 as the neckline, a break of $0.72 with volume will give you a target of $0.96.

Unless you use logarithmic prices, in which case the target is $1.10.

If you believe in that TA crap.

Disclosure: I own some Dalradian, and even some Feb 2015 warrants what the hell was I thinking.


Tuesday noontime news


Still awaiting today's anti-gold commentary from Barry Ritholtz.

In the meantime, here's the news:


Brett Steenbarger - is the market getting weaker? Quote:
Trending markets generally cut across sectors. When sectors are doing very different things, that smacks more of rotation than outright trend--and that keeps me nimble.
Again, the lack of collapse in semis and financials means this is just a rotation. It just happens to be going on in December, because I guess hedge fund clowns are always late to the party.


WSJ - Greek stocks and bonds tumble. Personally, I think the best thing for Greece would be Syriza in power. They can destroy the old kleptocrats, will have no compunction with putting all the Greek Nazis in prison for life, and will take pride in standing up to the Germans. But I'm also putting GREK and NBG on my trading radar for when Tsipras comes to power and turns out to be good for the economy.


FT beyond brics - what if the conventional wisdom on China is wrong? Hoo boy, don't let Billy Bishop see this. His reply will be "It is. Surprised?" As for Andy Rothman, I think he just made a friend in Jim O'Neill:
Let’s start with the consensus that China’s residential property market is about to replicate the U.S. housing crisis. But China has avoided most of the U.S. traps. For example, homeowner leverage is far lower in China than it was in the U.S. during the run-up to the crisis. By 2006, the National Association of Realtors reported that the median cash down payment for first-time homebuyers in the U.S. was only 2 per cent of the purchase price. In China, the minimum down payment is 30 per cent.

Another consensus holds that Chinese banks are on the verge of their own “Lehman moment.” But the products that broke Lehman Brothers—and caused havoc through the U.S. financial system—do not exist in China. There are no subprime mortgages and there are very few mortgage-backed securities. There is no secondary securitisation, so no collateralised debt or loan obligations (CDOs and CLOs). And China’s banks are very liquid, with deposits equal to 140 per cent of GDP, compared to 55 per cent in the U.S. Moreover, all Chinese banks are government banks, and there is no doubt that the Communist Party stands behind them.

Then there is the outdated view that China’s economy is dominated by stagnant state-owned enterprises. That was true 30 years ago, when I first worked in China, but today, small, privately owned companies account for 80 per cent of urban employment and more than 70 per cent of investment and industrial sales. In a relatively brief period of time, China has become very entrepreneurial.
You can listen to baseless assertions, or you can listen to the guy with hard data. Be warned that empiricism beats bald assertion every time.


Mining.com - gold fanatic Chinese officer made $5 billion from bribes. And that is where your Chinese gold demand was coming from, guys.


io9 - the best-ranked crop circles of 2014. They should really have an awards ceremony or something.


GLD $117.98 makes sense because....


Now that the morning hype is over, here's the GLD chart again:


And GLD selling down from its $119 peak this morning to the region of $118 makes sense, because Wall Street Whitey says "above the second Bollinger gold is >2SD and that means it's way too overbought so let's sell into this because gold is volatile and so we can make a quick profit as gold falls back to its Bollinger mean".

Which is bad if it becomes a trend, but is good if it just means white-ass honky hedge fund crackers becoming more short at +2SD. Cos if the underlying trend is gold-positive, these guys are just trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller.

Especially if gold doesn't manage to break down at +2SD and ends the day above it. Cos then Whitey's going to be looking at the guy to the left of him and the guy to the right of him, thinking "aw crap... are these guys closing their shorts? Am I going to be left holding the bag?"

And that could create a pop that puts the final touch of egg on the face of gold bears like Jeff Currie, whose gold $1050 call was weighing heavy on this market til it was proven to nothing more than the SWAG of some clown with a Series 7.

The US market is rolling over... except for these


The US market is rolling over in transportation, internet, autos and so on.

But then there's these:



Semis are still in an uptrend and don't look bad.



Large financial doesn't look bad, and KRE by the way is still horizontal.



And small-cap, amazingly, isn't rolling over yet either.

So maybe today's market dip hides the fact of Wall Street Whitey rotating into these three sectors?


The fun collapse began in September, remember


Here's the thing:


The wild collapse in miners began in September. If that lunatic theory of mine is correct, then September is when everyone started to pile into a long-USD short-gold trade. And it worked for them for a while.





If just half of that trade has to unwind now, maybe GDX gets back to 23?

I'm not predicting that it does. I'm just going to keep that number in my head as a possible target, to ensure I don't sell too soon.

People seem to be selling miners and PMs hard into this move (and who can blame them! I mean, look at how brutal the market has been!), so I expect even if we have our magical new uptrend that there'll be a lot of backfilling. Heck, maybe gold has to spend a whole month diddling around at the SMA(50).

Maybe it even fails.

At least I bought my stuff at a good point, so I will still have green in my summaries even if this move fails and I sell to limit losses.


GOLD AND MINERS CHARTS: you won't believe what happens next!


Boo-ya!

I await Ritholtz's next condescending mockery of gold and gold miners. I'll also be happy to hear his stories of what trades he made this year that happened to earn a 25% profit in one week.

Barry, you've become a contrary indicator! I laugh!

Anyway, here are the critical charts for today's goldbug news:

GOLD BITCHEZ!


Boo-ya:


Who's your daddy?


Monday, December 8, 2014

$VIX is popping


Looks like there's a downtrend a-brewin' in the US market:


Dunno if this is just a one-day thing or if $VIX is intending to break out further.

But:


I'd think if HYG is going to drop below $89 tomorrow, that the $VIX breakout will be further.

Nothing wrong with the US economy: it's just that Wall Street Whitey has all his positioning wrong and now he's got to sell some stuff to move some money around.


GOLD BACK AT THE SMA(50): here's what you need to know


Well, it's only 2:30, but:


Gold's back above the SMA(50).

If international jewry and the Council on Foreign Relations want to smack down gold after-hours, they still can; the question is whether they can get any shorter than they already are.

At some point they might accept that it could be a losing proposition, what with gold going up ex-US dollars.


Update on GLD:UDN after the 1:40PM pop


As an update:


Look.

It's only a half-baked theory of mine, that gold ex-USD has been rangebound while Wall Street honky crackers have been shorting it in a long-USD short-gold pair, and that the ex-USD rangeboundedness was a hint that this pair might not work out well for them, and that gold's pop out of that range on Wednesday was a sign of a possible upcoming change in the market's bias.

But that candle being printed today goes down to the arbitrary short-term EMA and support line. Now for some reason gold's popped up this afternoon.

If GLD:UDN ascends from here to make a new closing high above 4.82 or so, then there might be something to this half-baked theory. Because, objectively, a theory is right if you make money trading on it, and a theory is wrong if you lose your shirt trading on it.

Speaking of which, right before the pop I bought $30K of HGU.to at $5.03. No honestly I did. No really. I thought GLD and SLV were acting like they were waiting on something, and seeing both above their EMA(10) while the miners were down threatening a double bottom set me to tradin'.

It's all still early, but that sort of thing in the chart there sure is spoooooky.


Scotiabank, CIBC, and Argonaut Gold


Here's two stories that hit the wire of November 7th:

WKRB - Argonaut Gold given $5 price target by CIBC.

Sleek Money - Scotiabank gives Argonaut new $6 price target.

Here's Argonaut's chart:


And while gold is up since November 7th, Argonaut's down by one third from when these two reccies came out.

Guys, do you wanna maybe revisit your price targets? Cos apparently AR is cash flow negative, and so the market is only valuing them at cash plus $100M - and even that is dropping.

Guys?

Guys?



UPDATE: yeah, to all those guys from the brokerages who checked into my blog for a bit of Schadenfreude on IKN's reccie, your junior mining analyst job offers can be submitted below in the comments box. I'll keep them private if you ask me to.

Hey, it's worth a try.


Silver and gold, as of noon anyway



Well, despite what the junior miners' pukitude might be telling you, gold is still above its Bollinger mean and still in an upward channel.




Silver as well.

It's as if both of them are fixin' for another run at that magical SMA(50).

I wanna puke my junior miner stocks as much as the next guy, but these two charts really make me scratch my head and as "why"?

Then again, so do my cat's fleas. Make me scratch my head. And ask why. Why I have cat fleas. Stupid cat.


And gold's still not doing anything despite what the miners ETFs say


GDXJ:


Still rolling over, still looks brutal, still the kind of chart that convinces you GDXJ is going to $15 or something in the next couple days.

And yet? And yet?



And yet, ex-USD, gold is still calmly sitting above its recent breakout point, at support. I had wondered if this pullback would take GLD:UDN to its Bollinger mean like the last time, but it seems it just doesn't want to break down, no matter what the junior miners ETF is saying.

Really hard to figure what's going to happen next. It'd be awesome to buy a handful of crap like Argonaut or Sabina and see it pop 200% in a week as the gold price starts moving up, but it's still the old picking-up-falling-knives-in-front-of-a-steamroller problem.

So while it's nice to say "If we hit that bullseye, the rest of the dominoes should fall like a house of cards: checkmate!", it's also nice to stay solvent.


Railways dropping alongside oil again


Well, the transports index doesn't look that bad:


But that hides some horrible weakness in rails.




CN is caving in.




Norfolk Southern is caving in.




And even Union Pacific, greatest railway in the US, is getting a bit of a beating today.

Because, I guess, oil is down and therefore... reasons, or something.

I'm getting more convinced that we'll see the US market roll over for a bit. Because, again, reasons. Also, HYG is rolling over too.

Cheap oil is fantastic for the US, but that won't matter to the market til everyone's finished repositioning. Til then, chaos.


Sunday, December 7, 2014

Jojo in the Gold Report


Haven't heard from Jojo in a while.

The Gold Report - Jordan Roy-Byrne thinks the bottom is near. The relevant quote:
Over the last 18 months or so, I have been fooled several times in believing that gold stocks had been so oversold they couldn't go any lower. While they rebounded strongly for several months, they ultimately went lower.
Yup. Then again, just 25 months ago he was calling for $2350 gold in the subsequent 6 months, and I don't recall that ever happening. And it seems that the United States has done a good job "rolling over a few trillion in existing debt over the next 3 years", despite what he thought was going to happen.

So... well, at least he has some nice charts with squiggly lines.

I'd be happy to see gold go back to $2000, but I'm not holding my breath and I'm not going to base my investment decisions on nice words.


China bubble? Sign me up!


Hooray! It's bubble time!


Bloomberg - China regulator urges caution on stocks as trading hits record. Bloomberg won't tell you that the quote was within the context of cautioning against investing in fraudulent stocks:
Investors must consider risks while putting money into stocks, China’s securities regulator warned yesterday after a buying spree drove daily trading turnover to above 1 trillion yuan ($163 billion) for the first time.

Illegal activities including stock manipulation have recently been “raising their head” and investors should invest rationally, Deng Ge, a spokesman for the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in a statement on the agency’s website. A stable market is important for the economy, Ge said.

The Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) advanced 1.3 percent to close at 2,937.65 yesterday, after posting the biggest price swings in four years. The measure gained as much as 2.7 percent and fell 3 percent within the first 90 minutes of trade. For the week, the index jumped 9.5 percent, the most since February 2009.

“I hope investors, especially small and medium investors that are new to the market, invest rationally, respect the market, fear the market and bear in mind the risks present in the stock market,” Ge said.

The Shanghai index’s 21 percent rally over the past month, the most among 93 global indexes tracked by Bloomberg, is spurring investors to open share accounts at the fastest pace in three years and boosting turnover to record highs. The value of shares that changed hands on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges surged to a record 1.05 trillion yuan.
So is that the top for the Shanghai market? You think so?

Well....

A bit of Sunday news


Here's some reading for this morning:


New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. He continues to see growth through 2015.

WaPo - why the world missed the oil price crash.You shouldn't expect oil to pop back in the short term. Other than that, I personally think the oil price drop has a lot to do with speculators switching from long to short. Y'know, the way they do in secular commodity bear markets.

Brett Steenbarger - questions to ask when day-trading. The takeaway:
Many problems in day trading occur when we impose our own views on markets and do not focus on how markets are actually behaving. Problems also occur when we do not stay sufficiently flexible to continually update our views of how markets are behaving.
And please forgive him for quoting Ayn Rand right after that. He did it ironically.

Bloomberg - the fall of Bill Gross. A blow-by-blow account of how Gross got his ass fired. Includes the difficult final months where he would sit in his office, strip down to his underwear, and then fling poo at passersby.