Funny thing I just stumbled across:
Friday, March 21, 2014
Since a certain individual doesn't like Lana Del Rey, I've decided to entertain him instead with a hard-hitting documentary on The Spice Girls.
It's actually pretty good.
Dear CTV Network, M Capital Partners and Toronto Dominion readers: you might want to tell your IT departments that Windows XP support ends April 8th.
That means the computer you've been coming here with, the one with the twelve year old operating system, becomes a prime target for hackers.
It also makes me wonder why you're using such an ancient computer. Is there no profit in your line of business? Do you also wear a 30-year-old suit to work?
Or is it just cos you heard Lotus doesn't work in Vista?
Here's some stuff for the weekend:
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - tops, bottoms, and middles. Here's one for that TA clown who thinks the US is about to slip into another massive crash. Quote:
Because most of the time things are not bottoming or topping. They are middle-ing. They are churning or they are trending. Most of the time there is no inflection point at hand – these are rare occurrences. So to focus on them to such a great degree is probably a distraction and definitely a waste of time. And energy and emotion.
Calculated Risk - ATA trucking index up 2.8% in February. Here's a chart:
All you bears out there should ponder how the US market can possibly be "overvalued" if trucking tonnage is ~10% higher than it was in 2005-07.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - new all-time highs. He feels he has to repeat it because nobody was fucking listening the last time. What does "new all-time highs" mean? Quote:
When a stock hits an all-time high it means that people were willing to pay a price that no one before them has ever paid.But no, no, you go ahead and buy stocks that are down 50%, go on.
It means that no one has a loss in the stock or is “waiting to get back to even so they can sell”.
It means that a host of people who had been waiting for that pullback to get in are now ripping their own skin off in aggravation.
It means that it is the new favorite stock of those who are long, one that they will not easily part with because it is now “one of their winners” and it “has been good to them”.
It means the people who “bought small” are pissed even though they are up, these are the people sitting just below the offer like Tick Tock the crocodile loitering below Captain Hook’s gangplank – just waiting for a bite.
It means that every single analyst downgrade or estimate revision lower or silly piece of neutral commentary has been instantly invalidated – it all meant nothing and was a waste of ink.
It means that everyone who sold along the way, in varying degrees of course, was wrong – even if they were up big.
It means that any and all media carping over the company’s “fundamentals”, “model”, “management” or “outlook” were a total and utter waste of time and energy.
It means that these are the stocks that will be brought back to life the fastest from the depths of any market-wide sell-off or correction as they are now the hot money names.
FT beyond brics - Indian elections, where old men and dynasties vie for power. Parties don't really even matter - in India, it's what's the party affiliation of the rich family that gave away the most presents to the townspeople.
Mining.com - Goldman Sachs still sees gold price falling 20% by year-end. Their reasoning? China is going to collapse, India won't be buying more gold, and something about (sigh) TIPS. Ignore.
FT beyond brics - on the commodity super-cycle. Dear HSBC: did you know your chief economist for Australia and New Zealand failed first-year economics? I mean, how else can we explain a guy who looks at commodity prices from only the demand side and completely ignores supply? There's a reason Ags don't act like metals: you can always plant more coffee, you can always get more yield from farmland. However, mine grade continually goes down.
Oh and you might also want to buy him a copy of Jim Rogers' Hot Commodities, so he can learn why commodity prices don't go up in an EM secular bear market.
This isn't fucking rocket science.
PS Dave - Goldcorp punts the ball to April. They've "extended their offer" til April 4th, which to me means they really aren't all that interested in buying Osisko. But Otto has a different take in the comments section:
IKN wants to know if you would buy this shart:
UPDATE: A real TA would say "double top" and "lower low" as reasons to not own the chart. I don't care about either of those things, I just see something that goes down 90% of the time.
This looks like an exploreco in the bullshit 2010 market.
It spikes on something similar to "news", then spends the next several weeks dwindling til more news comes out to pop it up again. That means the people buying on news are paying way too much, and its liquidity flows slowly enough that it takes weeks to dwindle back down to a fair price.
And it's not at a fair price right now because it's still going down.
In fact, it looks like 90% of the time this chart is trending down; so there's no reason to buy it unless you have inside info that it's about to pop again. Because if you buy a shart like this thinking "oh it'll pop on the next news", and you don't know when the next news is, you'll see your investment continue to dwindle as the slow flow of sellers continues to drive this down.
And there is a constant slow flow of sellers, not buyers, because the chart is constantly trending down, and that means whatever this thing is supposed to be right now it's still considered overpriced by the majority of the market.
Maybe the next news convinces the market that it's undervalued and it pops. But if you don't know that the next news will prove that it's undervalued, and you don't know when the pop is coming (and the market definitely doesn't think there's one coming soon because the downtrend of the last 30 days is intact), then there's no point in buying this.
Here's an article that illustrates what you're doing if you buy this:
BI - gamblers betting on horse races waste too much money on the longshot.
I've got a scintillating scotoma again, so I dunno how much I'll be accomplishing on the blog today. It's only just now spread out far enough that I can see what I'm typing.
Wonder if I've got some sort of brain disease? The last time I had this the "migraine" that followed was nearly imperceptible. I felt a bit stuffy and doped up and weak, and had a short temper, and wasn't hungry, that's all there was. For about a day or so. No crushing head pain at all.
There's apparently a thing called acephalgic migraine so maybe that's what I have. But it's a bit late in life to be coming down with this, no?
Oh look, gold's up to $1340. I wonder if it'll pop back up when option expiry passes?
We also have PS Dave wondering if the juniors will collapse if Goldcorp withdraws their offer for Osisko on Monday. IKN insists that there's no chance in hell of Goldcorp walking away from the deal. In fact, from the comments section, I quote: "No way does GG walk away from OSK. No way in the world."
That's the guy at IKN, so he's the guy to blame if his prediction fails and the juniors collapse.
For what it's worth, I don't see how the market wouldn't know if the deal was falling through by now; insider info seems to flow through the gold miner world like American beer through one's urinary tract.
So maybe everything recovers starting today or Monday, and we can go back to making big money on the juniors?
Well, here's another 90s band I always heard of and never heard a song by til this week.
I guess it's best described as complex-guitar jangle-pop like The Smiths and Felt, with a girl singer that I guess people would probably compare to Liz Fraser.
Basically it's the kind of music that a never-was like Sarah McLachlan would spend the rest of her life wishing she'd written if she'd had any taste.
Really nice, anyway.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
CBC - Fred Phelps, founder of Westboro Baptist Church, dies at 84. Man, he is so gonna freak when he finds out God is a black lesbian woman.
Kinda funny that he happens to die on International Happiness Day of International Happiness.
The best reaction is, as always, from Mark Twain:
Well, the blog is a bit frickin' boring today, no news or anything.
So, why not crack out the kitten gifs?
Here's a little tired kitten!
Here's a kitty hugging a teddy bear!
More after the break! Entirely because I don't want to tax your graphics processor and not at all an attempt to inflate pageviews!
Discover Magazine - Soda or pop? Maps show Americans' colourful dialect differences.
I'm linking to this for the "analyst" out there who once spent two weeks in the US getting drunk and thinks that therefore he's some sort of expert on regional differences in America.
So for example, in Mississippi every kind of carbonated beverage is a coke, in central Kentucky they still use "you all" instead of the more proper "y'all", in North Dakota dinner and supper are two different meals, for some reason both Wisconsin and Rhode Island have a thing called a "bubbler", South Dakota is the only state with "rummage" sales, In rural Alabama the devil beats his wife (prolly cuz he wants to fit in), and strangely nobody has heard of the term "wood louse".
And so on. Check it out.
Apparently today is the International Day of Happiness.
It is celebrated worldwide by going to some stupid website established by the frickin' lizard people at the United Nations, where you're supposed to stare at a fucking two-colour screen designed by Kraftwerk or something, I dunno, it does nothing, I have no fucking clue what the point of it is.
And why is it today? To steal the people's holiday of the spring equinox and bring it under the domination of the parasitic rentier class of the kleptocratic elite. The same people who destroy our happiness by declaring wars, taking away our rights, perverting capitalism into slavery, and enforcing Chicago School economics are the same ones who now assert for themselves the right to define when and how we the disposeable peasantry can be happy.
So let's all be happy today! Your leadership demands it!*
We'll end with an appropriate image from Counterschwa:
* - Of course, finding happiness through the extermination of the parasitic ruling class is not encouraged.
Here's a little bit of morning news for you:
Mineweb - China doomsayers will be proven wrong. Says the CEO of Vale, who might have a bit of a vested interest. Still, he has a real job, unlike our typical commentator.
Mineweb - gold will continue moving from lower left to upper right. Says Gartman, who at least isn't a permabull on gold.
FT Alphaville - Russian police close Ukrainian candy factory. An illustration of the concept of "uninvestability", a reason why the Russian market can indeed go down below a P/E of 4 - to zero, in fact.
Daily Mail - school in Cornwall bans marking in red ink because it is a "very negative colour". And the school encourages teachers to provide "two or three positive comments" to even the dumbest clod in the class, because it's wrong to tell the stupid that they suck and are inferior.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
MINERS WILL COLLAPSE MONDAY, WHAT DRIVES THE GOLD PRICE, WILL BUSINESS INSIDER SURVIVE: here's what you need to know
Here's a chart to start you off:
With gold back to $1345 this morning, I guess one possibility is that March started with sellers holding it at $1340-$1360; last week someone tried to squeeze them with a breakout, an opportunity handed to them with the Ukraine story; and now the sellers have put on the muscle to bring gold back down to the $1340-$1360 range for OpEx?
Who knows? Maybe all these moves really are legitimate and not based on some clowns trying to play gold futures. What do you think, Mister Memekitten? All just legitimate moves?
Anyway, some great news stories today: what drives the price of gold? Will Business Insider survive as a company? The possible imminent collapse of the gold producers! And more!
And it's all after the break! You'll have to click through!
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Wathbh off at thbhe dentithbht. Here'thbh thbhome newthbh:
der Spargel - economic war with Russia will hurt German business. You know who else had an economic partnership with Russia?
Gavyn Davies - a debate on EM turbulence. I guess it all comes down to interest rates.
Reuters - China doubles yuan trading band.
FT Alphaville - the house that China built. I guess now we get to see if State capitalism does a better job containing a liquidity crisis than free-market capitalism.
Reuters - more on China's urbanization drive. Well, the capital investment looks like it's still going to be there, no?
Reuters - experts say that gold going up is a surefire sign that gold's about to go down. And hey! The article comes out right in time for options expiry!
Gigwise - has Courtney Love solved the missing Malaysian plane mystery? Presenting a headline with subject material like this in the form of a question demands a punchline, no?
So, here are some highly inappropriate punchlines after the break. Don't click through if you don't like inappropriate things.
I mean it, don't click through.
Monday, March 17, 2014
To reiterate the link:
Philosophical Economics - the US stock market is expensive and it should be. Hopefully you already read it, then said "hey this guy is really good", then printed it out and taped it to your monitor for future consultation. I'll just quote some bits and add tangential commentary:
The typical market before the tech-bubble was priced to offer very attractive returns, with a median P/E of around 13 times trailing earnings. The current market, at around 17 times trailing earnings, is priced much more richly. But this doesn’t mean that the current market is priced incorrectly. It doesn’t mean that a mistake is being made, and that you should therefore hunker down in cash and wait for the situation to get “corrected.” There’s an excellent chance that nothing is going to get corrected, that you’re going to continue to wait in vain forever, because nothing is wrong.
What really steams me about that guy we all know with the "P/E is expensive compared to the mean" blather is that he has no response to the obvious counter, which is "so how long will it take for the P/E to correct, and when do you expect this correction to start?"
I mean, if I'm supposed to make an investment decision on someone's expensive P/E call, that demands that he can time the P/E correction properly. A reversion to the mean will take time, and I can be killed waiting for the turn. So sorry, mister newsletter writer; if you're not giving me a timing prediction, your opinion is worthless.
And if you've sucked at timing the impending correction til now, I'm not even going to pay attention to you in the future.
As a contrast to the previous, here's Lydian:
Did some newsletter call a buy on LYD this weekend?
Well, there was a lot of volume at the beginning of March, and maybe that prepared the ground for a breakout of the $1-$1.20 range. Today's morning volume is a bit too much, but then again it's been like this earlier this month.
So do I sell? It's +3SD up, and Cookie doesn't like what the government is doing to screw with their asset. But at the same time, the property is a giftwrapped mine, and maybe LYD will now get bought up by people with a more rabid risk tolerance than the Legendary One, who don't think about things like the bottom-line NPV hit of moving a leach pad or what it's like to do business with Russians.
Meh. This tiny position counterbalances my tiny DPM position. So maybe I'll hold for now and see how this plays. I've learned in the past (BTO, RIO, FVI) that it's incredibly stupid to sell things that are going in the right direction. And garbage stocks with "yes but" investment theses do go up.
Here's Dundee Precious Metals' chart:
It seems to have run into a wall in the $5.40-$6.00 area, and has now collapsed below its EMA(16) and gone -2SD.
So is the chart broken?
Well, an obnoxious TA would say there was a needed gap fill in the $5-$5.40 area, and it's now filled that gap, so it's not a sell.
Then again, it ran up 100% since December, and might be able to sustain a fair bit of profit taking. If there's a cup & handle here, the handle is maybe broken.
My long-standing (and generally uninformed) opinion is that it's a company full of garbage assets, but with the mining expertise to make those individual pieces of garbage turn into gold when working together. The people running the company are boring as hell and that's a good thing because it means they're engineers.
I'll hold on to my tiny position for now, with the understanding that it could still really frickin' kick me in the teeth over the next few days. Who knows? Maybe some newsletter called a sell this weekend, and the bots who populate the DPM order book have forced the muppets to sell at a 10% discount cos that's what the bots have always done with this stock.
Let's clear some stuff out of my mailbox while I've got some spare time:
Philosophical Economics - the US market is expensive, and it should be. Read it and you might learn something.
FT Alphaville - in Putin's Russia, risk prices you! Risk repricing is an important basic function of markets that must always be kept in mind, sure; but I'm linking to this article because of the clever Yakov Smirnoff title. I say! Very witty, Mister Cotterill!
Mineweb - RBC Capital Markets analyst steals all my blog ideas, turns them into a bullish gold forecast. Thanks for the shout-out, asshole. You could at least pay me back for all my work with free access to your client research site or something. By the way, you should also tell your readers to beware the possibility that China flushes several thousand tons of gold in their coming credit apocalypse, or that India has a drought this year that destroys demand.
New Deal Democrat - on Kondratiev cycles. I do really think it's an interesting and vaguely valid idea: society is most vulnerable to the problems of which it no longer has any first-hand experience, and that's why you get long-period cycles of different types of market behaviour. However, I still think NDD's come down with the rabies, and am about to unsubscribe from the blog, because of his recent posts about the Malaysian airliner, because:
Stonekettle Station - the Malaysian airliner has crashed, quit being a bunch of fruitcakes. He really is from the Navy, he really does have experience hunting for downed aircraft, and so I'll accept without reservation his opinion that the plane simply went down, and it's just very difficult and costly to find a downed plane in several hundred thousand square miles of ocean.
No the Malaysian airliner isn't hidden somewhere being turned into a weapon of mass destruction. Partially because Islamic terrorists are too dumbass stoopid to know how to do something like that. Lay off the coke and come back to reality.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Here's your weekend news roundup courtesy of the Business Snider Headline Generation Program:
Huffington Post - did Miley Cyrus tattoo her inner lip with a sad yellow kitty? God, don't you hate it when journalists make a headline into a question? Come on, HuffPo! Get your fact-checker to find out if she did, and then publish your stupid article. Or is fact-checking too commie for Arianna?
CTV News - Miley Cyrus shows off 'sad kitty' tattoo on inside of her lip. CTV News does better, and yet they do it in a boring way.
US Weekly - Miley Cyrus gets "sad kitty" tattoo on inner lip: picture. US Weekly does even better: they let you know in the headline that they have a picture.
Daily Mail - Miley Cyrus rolls a suspicious-looking cigarette as she reveals new 'sad kitty' tattoo on inside of her lip. And the Mail wins the contest, yet again; the "sad kitty tattooed on her lip" angle is old, let's add something spicy!