Saturday, May 4, 2013
Friday, May 3, 2013
Sorry, I was busy at work all day setting up the hockey pool.
There's a lot of great news out there, and I'd strongly suggest you read each of these articles - especially the one at the bottom.
Calculated Risk - the future's still bright. If you know any doomer bloggers or doomer analysts, please ask them how they can assert the US is doomed with:
- housing starts turning up strongly,
- state payrolls bottoming out,
- US states moving into budget surplus,
- declining mortgage debt, and
- debt service ratio at a record low.
Price Action Lab - $RUT showing a broadening formation. Just read the first few sentences; you don't need to know the rest, cos $RUT has since broken above to a new high. Like the Q did yesterday. And the Dow Industrials have done. So maybe you should tell isolated charts to go fuck themselves and pay more attention to the intermarket.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - The Dow just broke 15,000 so I'm going to rub it in your fucking face. There's a point in doing that: if you're one of those perpetu-doomers, you've wasted fucking years of his time, so he's going to beat you over the head with your failure to encourage future humility. Which is, in business, exactly what you should do to bigmouths who waste your time and money.
And if a beating doesn't teach them humility, then you should just ignore them from now on.
Ritholtz - oh noes teh fiscal cliffs will crush teh stocks in 2013!!!!1! Mainly he's saying that Donald Luskin is the world's greatest contrary indicator. Nevertheless, doomers who freaked out over the fiscal cliff turned out to have been wrong; if you can remember who they were, you might want to unscubscribe from their clownish blogs and websites now, to avoid wasting further time and energy.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - on deceitful charts. He's got a great example - the "S&P versus 2000 NASDAQ bubble" chart, which only works if you completely fudge the scale. Again: once you catch some clown lying to you, outright lying, cut them off and never listen to their bullshit again.
New Deal Democrat - a good employment report with crappy leading internals. Seems he disagrees with Shaoul (who can find no fault in this report); I really do like the bonddad blog and Calc Risk for my two US economic analysis, so I'll go with them. Then again, maybe the negatives that worry NDD are simple artefacts of that idiotic sequester? Then again then again, the sequester is still there so we have to incorporate that in our forward outlook, no?
Bespoke - S&P trading range charts. Every single sector is 2SD up or more. Is that bad? Then again, it means you've got breadth behind this thrust - weren't you whining about the lack of breadth just a couple days ago? Well now you've got breadth. What the fuck more do you want? A big flashing neon sign that says ""?
Cognitive Concord - Sell in May? Yet another article on the topic, which tells me it'll be a very bad idea to sell in May this year - after all, everyone's talking about it. Meanwhile we're seeing a breadth thrust - from what I remember smart people saying, those put some duration into market upmoves. This one might be good since (if you look at the charts) it looks like they're breaking out from a 1-2 month base in the various indices. In any case, it seems you really only want to miss September (always a cruel month) and October (the month with all the idiotic panic crashes); and the debt ceiling battle will be around-that-time-ish. In any case, by September you want to be long junior golds, right? That's the time, isn't it? August, September or something? Help me out here.
FT beyond brics - India cuts rates, admits they're thereafter screwed. India still sucks and it'll take an election to provide any possibility of change; their biggest problem is structural, not rates. A nice monsoon this summer might help, though.
Offbeat China - Wall Street versus middle-aged Chinese ladies in the battle for gold. Apparently it's become a popular article. No wonder: it asserts that Chinese moms bought 300 tons of gold during its drop. Now how much has GLD sold over the same period? 360 tons from all ETPs this year.
Seriously, if this number is true, it proves what I've been saying: you white people can go fuck yourselves with your fucking white-centric attitudes. The gold market is not a white Wall Street market. Wall Street is a pimple on the gold market's ass.
If only 1% of the population of China went out this month to buy 1 ounce of gold each, or if 8% (still likely) of Chinese citizens went out and bought 4 grams each, that would still sop up the entire 2013-to-date outflow from chickenshit ETFs by puking white boy hedge funds who had no clue why they were trying to hedge with pretend gold in the first place.
And that's with the Indians not buying any more than usual.
And physical doesn't get sold like paper. It stays in place a lot better.
I am no longer worried about gold. I am now entirely positive gold. Because I just read an article and did some math.
Thursday, May 2, 2013
Heh. I bought HQU to play the Nasdaq/S&P breakout, then realized I don't like leveraged ETFs and should have grabbed XQQ instead.
But look at this:
Since 2009, HQU has better than doubled the QQQ. It's a 2x long ETF whose performance gets better than 2x as time goes by, not worse!
QLD, the US 2x Q, also strongly outperforms over time.
Why is this? Is this some artefact of end-day VWAP moves affecting rebalancing?
Upon updating that last post with "Betting ends!" I remembered good ol' Banzai.
I'm pretty sure it was a British TV show, and the one guy used to play Cato in the Pink Panther movies.
Anyway, if you've never heard of the show, this is pretty much what it was like:
And regular feature, Mr. Shake Hands Man:
Zerohedge - housing recovery? Quote:
With Lumber prices plunging to 5 month lows, we have just one question for those buying homebuilder stocks as they push new highs - what are they building houses in this new normal?
My answer: with lumber, which is still working through a tremendous supply glut.
Nice that homebuilders have cheap lumber to work with, eh? More profit for homebuilders.
You stupid cunt.
Also, correlation is not causation. Nevertheless I await your next post, where you will argue the bottoming pennant in the $BDI is evidence of the imminent collapse of America.
Yet more, since some significant news is out now.
Calculated Risk - weekly initial claims down to 324k. A happy number, US looks good.
Bonddad - claims 324k. Normal for an expanding economy.
BI - the European PMI implosion continues. But as they say, "the good news is that in many countries things imploded at a less-worse rate than they did the month before." And yes, that is a cause for optimism.
BI - is this a chart of Greece turning the corner? By the way, to put a jinx on everything - as part of my "flee the miner scene" diversification strategy, I now have $20K in EWI, EWP and GREK. Yes, GREK. Too bad NBG moved, I had half a mind to buy it at 70 cents and now it's popped.
Gold and silver, premarket, have recovered from yesterday's puke. So today should be a day that makes you happy.
Some bits of stuff to ponder:
Bonddad - sorry doomers, the stock market is not divorced from reality. I left a comment that goes heavily into social theory, but the point is, of course fundies and paleocons will say this market is overvalued - their forward expectation includes the End Times and God's judgment on the sinners. And of course the fundies and paleocons have monopolized the social & economic narrative, because their views are typically ascendant during periods of economic dislocations.
Reuters - Japanese household spending surges as Abenomics gains momentum. This is the big story for the world economy - what happens when the (formerly) second-largest economy in the world starts moving forward again? You haven't seen a strong-Japan world economy for twenty years: this changes everything.
JC Parets - two ratios to watch. His intermarket chart-fondling suggests tech and EMs are turning around relative to the SPY. What would drive this? A resurgent Japan, maybe? And isn't this already the expectation?
FT beyond brics - China subprime for the masses. Eesh. It's like China is repeating USA 2006: "diversified" investment assets that are really horribly concentrated, here in one single real estate project. I don't think that would end well.
FT Alphaville - where the Chinese credit is going. This is the big question - is China repeating USA 2006? One point suggested by a pundit is that the debt-financed capital stock produced is not yet profitable; but if half the money used to produce that stock actually went into the pockets of corrupt officials, then when will it ever produce a net benefit? And to what extent is capital allocation to real estate construction ever a net positive for the economy after the buildings have been built?
Reuters - here's your first "physical gold demand has petered out" article. Quote: "These buyers are price sensitive and they are not going to be buying indefinitely if the price goes up." My reply: but EM citizens allocate 10% of their asset mix to physical gold, so are you suggesting the EM wealth generation boom has ended?
Mineweb - uranium poised for another boom? When? Maybe a year from now or more. Well, that's nice to know, and so maybe we should keep our eye on the U charts for a hint of a breakout in the next year or two. But I'm not holding my breath.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - skate to where the puck will be. Thing that's weird is that Josh Brown seems to think the puck is going to be in the materials sector next.
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
Zerohedge - silver at only $1.79 over spot? There's only one catch.... Aw, you have to buy a whole kilogram? Wow! That's a lot of money! Ooh! Maybe instead you can go to the Scotia Macotta in Toronto and buy your PMs at the desk at spot plus a tiny premium? Oh but wait... you're on Zerohedge, so you collect welfare and all your money was lost betting on shitty gold companies, and now you try to buy single 1-ounce coins over the internet. OK, never mind.
Zerohedge - Bank of Israel to buy European stocks with its... reserves? I thought it was funny that my dumb jewish ex was recently busted for credit card fraud. But now I guess I can't make that joke about her being a bad jew cos she's so bad with money. Not if the BoI is just as idiotic.
Seriously? A central bank's reserve... should hold... stocks? Are you certain that is a good idea? Do the people of Israel not have any idea what central banks' reserves are supposed to do? No idea when they usually get tapped? Any, y'know, examples from history? Just the past hundred years?
Zerohedge - Arizona becomes second state to make gold and silver "legal tender". Um... so when you buy your new stereo system for $823.47 at Gerry's Sound in Flagstaff, do you have to look up spot on Kitco and bust out the calculator to figure out how many silver rounds to hand over? Or will stores post prices in gold and silver? Will the state supply denominations other than 1 ounce? Will the state be minting the coins?
And does this mean you no longer have to pay capital gains on PMs?
Hey, speaking of which, I have a question.
We know that anyone trying to carry more than $10K out of Canada is a terrorist, and at the very least they're going to detain you til you miss your flight while they bust your chops for actually possessing money.
My 1oz coins are Canadian mint, and they're supposedly "legal tender" with a face value of $50. So if I leave the country am I allowed to carry, say, 100 of them with me, and simply declare it as "$5000 in Canadian dollars"?
I assume the answer is "no, they'll kick your fucking face in, confiscate all your gold as 'proceeds of terrorism', and disappear you to a CIA-run torture camp in Syria for two years. Because they can."
But I was wondering if anyone else knows.
This is funny.
It's probably not a real attempt to solicit investment in a stock, but even still it's funny.
We should probably post little notices like this.
In fact, you junior miners should pass this on to your IR people to show them how it's really done!
Calculated Risk - weak ADP private employment numbers. Because of the sequester, maybe? Y'know, that thing we knew was going on?
Zerohedge - morning commodity smackdown. It's not because of the jobs report. It's probably because someone was too long something and now they're getting beaten up for their sins.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - 361 Capital weekly research briefing. Interesting opinions - the Japanese experiment is pressuring Merkel (her country naturally compares themselves to Japan); commodity price drops hurt some EMs, but greatly help net importers like India; MSFT is being heavily bought by hedgies, so that's the next stock (AAPL, GLD) that will move 100% higher for no justifiable reason.
FT Alphaville - the risk of yen reversal. Could be that the hedge funds simply read this article that says "In the wonderful world of unintended feedback loops it transpires increasingly that what is good for Japan, is bad for Germany, which is good for the periphery, which is better for the euro than the dollar."
Zerohedge - is stability in Japanese bonds signaling gold's next move higher? Or, as we have seen today, maybe it's just a chart of two things that move in the same direction. Most neofascists have a hard time recognizing that correlation is not causation.
FT Alphaville - where are all the natural gas fleet conversions? They're in doubt that there's a secular move to natural gas in the US. Though a conversion to electric should count, since electricity is being generated by natural gas, right?
FT beyond brics - solve India's problems by asking people to just hand over their gold to their banking industry. Ha ha! They'll love the idea. But in other news, Indians keep 8-10% of their wealth in gold.
Amazon - Birth Control is Sinful in the Christian Marriages and also Robbing God of Priesthood Children!! It's not that it's a 600 page $150 book WRITTEN IN ALL CAPS; it's that the reviews posted are utterly hilarious.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
BTW, while I email myself news links all day for inclusion into one of these news summaries things, I also tend to delete half of them before I finish the post. Frankly, I don't want to swamp you with bullshit, which most news is. Nevertheless, some things need constant repeating.
New Deal Democrat - April gas price decline. He's very much interested in US gasoline prices, since they have such a huge effect on the US economy by sucking money out of consumer spending. So this is a positive, and if indicative of a secular trend could turn into a long-term positive.
Bloomberg - tech stocks cheapest in seven years. I guess there are a lot of reasons to hate them. Wonder if that's a good reason to buy them? With, y'know, a resurgent Japan, who tend to like buying technology? And with EM countries having to improve TFP by automating?
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - Hey guess what, Abenomics is starting to work. Another reason for Paul Krugman to gloat. Another reason for Austerians and doomers to shut the fuck up forever.
BI - Japan's retail and manufacturing strengthening. Again, as above.
Bespoke - Spanish sovereign spread below 300bp. Thus there is no problem in Europe. By the way... why is it that the gigantic bond market is rewarding Spain and Italy for refusing to do any more austerity? Is it because the bond market is stupid, while the little queerboy talking-head neocon bigmouths are smart? Is that it? The bond market is stupid? Or does the bond market know that these countries need growth, not austerity, in order to service their debts?
Mineweb - Rio Tinto to cut 200 jobs in London. Here's who you fire: anyone who doesn't dig fucking rock out of the ground.
John Kaiser's got a big blog post up that follows the gist of his recent presentations.
I assume you can read it without a subscription by clicking here.
I'm sure he would be ashamed to admit that he reads my blog, but I think he does.
I'm incommunicado for most of the day.
Monday, April 29, 2013
BI - economic data coming, April 29 to May 3. I think this is the time of year when the world markets take a faceplant, as they get frightened by bad data. But since China, India and southern Europe have been taking off recently, maybe this will be a week of good news?
Bloomberg - European softening on austerity may accelerate. The elite are still fucking kleptocratic closet fascists, but they know enough to reconsider a failed policy when it gets destroyed in peer-reviewed literature.
der Spargel - EU social affairs commissioner says wages in Germany must increase. Firstly, yes: this is how you're supposed to fix the disparity between north and south. Secondly: are you shitting me? Are Germans really making under $10 an hour? The richest country in the EZ and they have to shit on their working class? And thirdly: I like the quote "Some people compare the situation to America in the 19th century, when there was a mass migration from the south to the prosperous north after the Civil War", when suggesting that higher wages might lure Auslanders into Germany to work at jobs; that analogy is very telling, because that mass migration in the US informs modern American racism. Another illustration of the secret thoughts of Germans: "Deutschland fur Deutscher, Auslander raus" isn't just the chant of the neo-Nazis, it's the national motto. And you want this country at the heart of the EZ?
BI - Jim O'Neill's global macro outlook. Very positive for EMs, and therefore positive for gold.
Goldman Sachs - Jim O'Neill's final musing. Again, very positive on world growth.
FT beyond brics - how to avoid the middle income trap. I wonder if Jim O'Neill has been looking at total factor productivity growth? It's the key to all of this. Apparently he's a smart person.
FT beyond brics - India's love affair with gold. Sorry dude, you're not going to change things by simply giving Indians an "alternative that provides a higher rate of return". You're going to have to start by building a banking system that's not corrupt or incompetent, getting it out into the countryside, and then giving it fifty years for them to win the people's faith. Good luck with that.
Mineweb - blah blah people in China buying gold. Another "look, China's buying gold" article for you. Boy, it'd be nice if the racists and fascists in the goldbug movement were to learn a little bit about the other cultures of the world, eh? Instead of thinking the gold price had anything at all to do with the United States?
Sunday, April 28, 2013
AP - Two police officers shot outside Italian premier's office in alleged plot to attack politicians.
An unemployed Italian gunman shot and seriously wounded two policemen Sunday in a square outside the premier's office in Rome, but he "wanted to shoot politicians," Rome prosecutor Pierfilippo Laviani said.
Shots rang out in Chigi Square near a busy shopping and strolling area shortly after 11:30 a.m. just as Italy's new government -- Premier Enrico Letta and his new ministers -- were taking their oaths at the Quirinal presidential office, about a half-mile away.
The suspected gunman, dressed in a dark business suit, was immediately grabbed by other police in the square, wrestled to the ground and taken away.
Laviani, who later questioned the alleged assailant, said the man "wanted to shoot politicians, but given that he couldn't reach any, he shot the Carabinieri" police.
Laviani added that the man "confessed everything," but didn't appear mentally unbalanced.
The shooting "was the tragic gesture of an unemployed man," Interior Minister Angelino Alfano also told reporters after briefing Letta and his new Cabinet about the attack.
When times are so tough that you feel like killing yourself, don't. It's better to go after the people responsible for fucking up your life.
This attack times a few thousand is what the kleptocratic elite in Europe are scared of - and what they need. If we see a few more dozen attacks like this, the Eurozone politicians will magically grow a desire to fix the continent that they've so far only destroyed and robbed.