Friday, December 16, 2011

Analysts at 2011 PDAC who were proven right.

I've got a notebook full of notes that I took while reading the various "great traders" books. Aphorisms and such, you know. The back is also full of notes from when I had to bury my sister, so I figured now's a good time to get rid of the damn thing by transcribing all the traders' stuff into Word.

Reason I want to do that is I'm going to try to grow up a bit and develop a system for myself. I'm not a buy and hold person at all, so I need to get a proper system to get myself in and out, instead of "buy and hope".

Anyway... I've gone through a few pages, and have now run into my notes from the Sunday analyst do at the March 2011 PDAC. Some interesting things are here:

  • Ian McAvity predicted $45 silver and bull oil. Pretty good, eh? He also thought the S&P run was "overextended and so vulnerable" - and as it turns out, we were $25-$30 from $SPX's peak, and 100 points above where we are now. Good call Ian McAvity! Seems like a Tanashian-type newsletter, same price too except one-third the number of issues. And on paper via mail, apparently. Might check him out... then again, I already subscribe to the biiwii newsletter.
  • John Kaiser: he's not the Russian KGB stooge Max Keiser from Russia Today. He drew the parallel between low short-term interest rates and the pension fund collapse; I feel this is an important yet completely ignored undercurrent in modern mass political discontent. He predicted a young-generation uprising against the baby boomers: is this anything like Occupy Wall Street? At the same time, he was also calling for inflation to cause supply shocks and thus rioting; yeah, Egypt was unresting already by PDAC, but now we're more worried about deflation, eh? As for his picks: Avalon Rare Metals has collapsed about 60-70% and QRM's down over 50%. Rare earths? Is teh suckz. Kaiser rationalized a fad, is all.
  • Ha ha! Then I ducked out and chatted with Dynasty at their booth. They said Ecuador wanted to get a few contracts done before June. Ha ha!
  • Mickey Fulp's talk was basically a primer on resources and reserves. He noted that a resource basically is worthless - only a mineral reserve is mined. Good point, ignored by many perhaps. No predictions from Mickey.
  • Brent Cook did his chat on the Seafield pump. Answered a question on Sunward, feels it to be low grade. With respect to Kaiser, Brent's AMM has also gone down about 40% since his PDAC talk. Lydian has held up quite well though.
  • John Doody basically pumped his subscriptions for half the talk. At the same time though, he threw out Yamana as one of his picks, and that's done well since, so good on him!
I guess I'll be going back next year... we'll have to see. I really hate the 200-feet-underground venue. But I already got next year's booklet, and there are a lot of really cool classes.

who knows?

Dude, I really don't know. UUP is descending from overbought by RSI(8), $VIX refuses to spike, GLD was oversold and is finding support at EMA(250), copper's refusing to fail, pretty much everyone's refusing to fail.

And yet there's insufficient volume to confirm anything positive is about to happen. And as Gary T points out, all the markets are below the happy range and in the scary range. JNK:LQD is still turning down, today.

Either they want to lure us back in to punish us more, or this really is the end of the carnage. Or, maybe everyone who wants to sell because of the oncoming dooooom has taken Friday off.

I think best, wisest thing to do is wait til UUP turns down, $HUI turns back up, and GLD and SLV both turn up. No? Or, at least, don't make a trading decision on a Friday when I can't get any volume confirmation.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Thanks for having me on your list, but...

Weird. Whenever the market dumps I get a spike in traffic. As if anyone really feels they have a need to consult me.

I'm just as bad of course - a million hits on Biiwii from my desk this morning.

Probably the best thing to do is determine for yourself the times when you should sell and get out. My time, for example, should have been last week when the $HUI was rolling over and failing to maintain its EMA(8). That was when I shoul have sold. And I shouldn't have been buying back other things when it was under its short-term EMA.

I've sold a bunch of stuff this morning - still holding my GOZ, though - and am hunkering down in my gun-filled bombshelter for the rest of the year. There is now no more newsflow to save us - the Euro pols have all gone home for a well-deserved one-month Xmas vacation. Gold's broken its triangle downward, JNK:LQD is rolling over, GLD:SLV is busting out, and as Bonddad Blog notes UUP not only busted through resistance, it did so on increasing volume.

I am also fearful of the heavy pukes into the bid on silver and gold on the overnight trade.

I'm going to spend the rest of the year designing a proper trading system for myself. I hate giving back my hard-earned winnings on stupid moves.

My cat has a nasty wound on his head so I'm off work the rest of the week. Vet comes tomorrow to shave it, clean it and check it out. Then I get to babysit the poor twerp all weekend. He hates the vet, but he loves being fussed over by mommy.

I've spent several months giving to other people with no fucking thank-yous in return - burying my sister and sorting her estate for a scumbag brat nephew, bailing out one guy after another at work because I'm apparently the only guy here who knows how to do their jobs, taking in a starving abandoned cat. Oh - and giving back to the market of course! :-) So right now I'm totally burned out and unable even to make it til the Xmas shutdown at work without extra time off. Thus part of the explanation for the selling - I have no time to babysit my stocks.

MFL was beaten down already, months ago, so I'm not too worried about it now (if it breaks $10.50 I'll reconsider). GOZ shouldn't go anywhere, nobody trades the stock anyway.

I'm impressed with the relative - no, absolute - strength in Rio Alto. WTF, eh? Makes ya wonder.

Anyway, here's me signing off. Gotta catch a bus, or whatever.

let me get this straight....

RIO sucks so bad that nobody would ever want to buy them out. So it pukes down to $3.24.

FVI sucks so bad that it dives to $5.94.

GUY sucks so bad with their worthless deposit that it dives to $7.33.

XG sucks so bad it goes down to $8.06.

DPM sucks so bad they go down to $8.50.

AR sucks so bad they go down to $6.33.

All these companies that mine actual gold and silver, or have beautiful gold or silver properties, are worthless?

Today's the apocalypse?

$HUI's RSI(7) right now is 24. UUP's RSI(8) is 78.

I was thinking of dumping all my stocks today. Then I saw nickel, aluminium, led and uranium aren't diving as bad as silver. Probably because you can't puke them into the market at 8AM.

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

James West on CNBC!!!!!!!1!eleven!!

Sorry, still busy at work. Will probably remain very busy until the market no longer matters (i.e. the Xmas break). Lack of posting will continue until morale improves.

Here's a link to James West! On CNBC fer cripes sake!

Sunday, December 11, 2011

What's wrong with Don?

And if you think *I* overreact....

Everybody's talking about your anium

GT's been talking about Uranium. Mickey Fulp is giving interviews about Uranium.

I refuse to be drawn in until the chart looks better.

In any case, here's food for thought:

Though the Fukushima disaster happened on March 11, it's interesting to point out that the U world peaked about a month earlier.

Since then, U.TO (cyan line) is down 40%. FIS dropped 60% - but then raced back, probably because of the Hathor buyout speculation.

Beyond those two, you have a load of puke that's 65%-70% down. And then at the very abject bottom you have Macusani Yellowcake.

Cameco, by the way, is down about 55% on this same graph (not shown). I don't know about you, but if I ever were to want to buy back into the U space, I'd not want to do it by betting on some crap exploreco.

Hey, Occupy Toronto!

Here's a shout-out to the commies and gender-queer activists at Occupy Toronto.

Guess what? There's actually something of value that you could be protesting against, instead of your endless decolonization-of-gender workshops and free blowjobs for Sid Ryan.

Apparently, MF Global stole all its clients' money perfectly legally, through rehypothecation. No news there. Well, apparently, rehypothecation is also being practiced by Canadian banks.

Which means that your granny's money at RBC and/or BNS can be stolen at a moments' notice. Um, legally. And, um, you'd think that since this violates basic law, that the Canadian government must be expressly allowing it.

Now, I know that the Occupy Toronto folks are a bunch of hardcore Maoists who don't give a shit about their own grannies. Because anyone with more than half a million in savings is an enemy of the people, according to them. And this includes their own grannies, assuming their dead husbands actually saved money for them.

My own dad, for example, was proletarian as you can get - he was a postman. Thankfully he left a pile of money for mom, saved up by years of feeding us cheap shit sausages and homegrown potatoes, $20 Christmas presents, and working 15-20 hours of overtime a week. (Plus the luck of buying a new house and locking into a mortgage right before the inflation of the 70s - which is how all retired proletarians in my city got wealthy.) Of course, her dead husband's life savings means she's the enemy of the people, at least according to a bunch of YorkU Pol Pot worshippers who have never seen anyone save money in a bank account before.

I had to sit her down and have a chat with her after reading this article. Basically, I asked her what she would do if she found out tomorrow that Royal Bank had gone tits-up, and all her money there was gone. I explained "counterparty risk" and "regulatory capture" to her.

I noted that a "Guaranteed Investment Certificate", which as it stands pays nothing (1.5% for 2 years right now, I think) because of artificially low interest rates (i.e., robbing from fiscally prudent grannies to give free money to young professionals to finance gigantic monster homes), is guaranteed by the government. Well, this proof of rehypothecation of client money in Canada means that GICs are actually worthless - because if rehypothecation is happening in Canadian banks, that means the government no longer recognizes property rights when they interfere with a bank's "right" to play casino with their clients' money without their consent. So a "Guaranteed Investment Certificate", in addition to not actually being an investment, is now also no longer even guaranteed.

So now you have a real smoking gun, guys. Banks in Canada are robbing the people. And they're doing it legally with the help of that scumbag Republican Stephen Harper.

So can we count on an Occupy Toronto demonstration with actual real value, some time in the future, bringing to light that funny-business is now happening in Canadian banks?

Or will it be another fucking march against an elected mayor and a disabled-lesbians-of-colour rally?