Friday, March 16, 2018

How screwed the US is

Two articles on how screwed the US is right now:

Calculated Risk - Larry Kudlow is usually wrong. The guy completely screwed the pooch on the US housing bubble. Read how.

Bonddad - Real M1 and M2 growth lowest since 2010. Hello imminent recession! Especially with another Trump clown in charge of the Fed.

Friday videos: yup so I'm back to pushing limits here

In honour of the UK's National Child Sexual Exploitation Awareness Day, here's Gary Glitter's "Do You Wanna Touch Me":

And what's funny is, this isn't even remotely the most inappropriate thing I've ever posted on my blog.

Tuesday, March 13, 2018

Lesson about explorecos

I guess the lesson is that even if a company's got a really great deposit, it can still fuck over all the shareholders and be worth zero fuck all.

On this day....

On this day in 1781, songwriter William Herschel discovered your anus while in his bath.

Monday, March 12, 2018

The blockchain pipedream

Nouriel Roubini - the blockchain pipedream. Wherein he tells everyone that bitcoin and blockchain are just bullshit. Not that anyone's going to listen to him if they're invested, of course.

You're telling me...?

Wait, isn't the Nasdaq at an all-time high again?

Friday, March 9, 2018

Friday videos: a song about the Chromatics covering Joy Division or something

And you don't see anyone cool in the entire world covering songs by fucking Kiss, do you? But Joy Division, everyone covers them:

Wednesday, March 7, 2018


In the US, Congress has the power to regulate trade, including tariffs.

Not Trump.

Monday, March 5, 2018

NDD triple-shot of dooooomery

Three from NDD:

New Deal Demoncrat - is the secular trend changing? I'd point out that the last time bond yields and stock prices both went up together, the US market was a completely different animal, with much more manufacturing, much less services, and a completely different demographics.

New Deal Demoncrat - significant deterioration in M1 & M2. Bears watching, because money supply is a no-bullshit indicator. Then again, so much American money is used overseas that it might actually signify something else, depending on whether or not the Fed follows domestic M1 & M2 or worldwide M1 & M2.

New Deal Demoncrat - the march of demographics and the 2018 midterms. Really interesting take on US voter demographics, with some interesting ideas like how people actually don't generally change their political stripe as they age.

The Trumpening entrumpens

BI - Mueller's leaked hit list shows he's targeting Trump like a criminal enterprise.

Ha ha, bye Trump.

Remember the PDAC curse!

Remember, PDAC is almost over.

Every year, all mining stocks collapse right after (or sometimes during, as in you're going down the Convention Centre escalator Friday morning and you check your stocks and go "holy shit, why am I here?") PDAC.

You have been warned.

Friday, March 2, 2018

Josh Brown on trade war

The Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - trade war.

Follow the links for more detailed commentary.

But this bit:
Needless to say, markets hate this idea, because it’s dumb, and the Dow Jones immediately vomited up 500 points as the impromptu declaration was made in front of an audience of steel CEOs.
is probably the part that the press should have been telling you, but which they haven't.

Thus, fear bullshit.

Aw, good ol' Trump, creating massive market volatility

Aw, good ol' Trump:

BI - Trump: "trade wars are good!!!!1"

For the record:

a) 25% on steel and aluminium are no big deal.

b) Sure, there is far more American manufacturing using steel and aluminium as inputs, and thus the tariffs are a net negative for the US economy.

c) Maybe Trump knows this, but really primary metals tariffs are just an indication that the primary industries are bribing Trump more than secondary manufacturers are.

d) Doesn't matter anyway, because manufacturing is a piddling small part of the US economy.

e) And US-listed manufacturers whose plants are in other countries won't see the tariff.

f) But yeah, it indicates Trump is willing to do other stupid things in the future.

g) I'm still waiting for someone in the press to point out whether or not Trump has the power to pass this without Congress. I doubt you can get a majority in the House or Senate to go along with this.

h) Though it'll be interesting to see which side the Democrats from steel districts are on. Trade wars are always popular in the Rust Belt.

i) In any case, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out at the international level. The US doesn't technically have the power to impose these tariffs under WTO, though of course the US does have the power to say "fuck you bozos".

j) Off to do more homework now. Wondering if we see $SPX 2600 again.