And by the way, on TA

By the way:

I'm taking spatial stats, and we're doing things like kernel estimates and Moran's I and so on.

Basically, with spatial data, you can generate these sorts of things to create maps that easily illustrate spatial variation in data.

One of my teachers was saying that he's been able to publish all sorts of stuff with a positive response just by doing a kernel analysis of a point pattern. It's a trivial exercise from a spatial stats perspective, but people in academia feel they get an awful lot of information from a picture.

I was thinking about this. Humans' brains are high-level visual computers: you can see how much so by looking at how fucking hard it is to train a computer to recognize a face, which we can do instantly.

And so, if you can present data in a visual pattern, you'll see what's subjectively a vast amount of info in that picture, that you'd never see in a list of numbers.

TA, then, is just applying simple heuristics to visual data, in order to access extra information visually.

And that's exactly why it looks like Tarot card reading, even when done properly.

market comment with 2 charts

QQQ:

The is the best of US market ETFs, and it looks like it doesn't want to break thru to a new high.

So what you should want to know right now is, will we stall here, or have another waterfall 10% collapse?

Well, since absolutely everything got correlated in the last spike and subsequent collapse, let's look for a clue in the reach for yield space:

And in this case, China failed at the Bollinger mean and has now dropped below its SMA(50) and gone Bollinger negative.

So either China diverges from the US in the next bit, or the failure in China yesterday means an upcoming failure in the US equities.

Sorry, having too much fun at school

Sorry, been having far too much fun learning spatial analysis at school, so haven't been posting.

New Deal Demoncrat is on the job, still keeping an eye out for a turn in the economy:

New Deal Demoncrat - a change in economic seasons? Part 2 will be coming soon, I hope.

Friday videos: a song about lego

Here's a song about lego or something:

Well duh

Market is selling off late this afternoon (Tuesday) simply because people are scared of the result of the Fed minutes released Wednesday.

And because the selloff began after 3PM, you know it's the instos that are doing the selling, not retail.

Which just goes to show that instos are fucking pathetic moronic lemmings with no intelligence.

Which you would have learned already, simply by seeing the quality of ignorant fucktards taking business and economics degrees at universities.

Really, these people are just taking rubber-stamp degrees to signal to the kleptocracy that they have the breeding required to associate with the other entitled ignorant fuckwits in banking.

Here's where South Park got their idea

Funny:

DECEARING EGG!

An internet classic:

Some Friday noos

Here's some fun reading for Friday:

New Deal Demoncrat - why I'm piddling my frilly pink panties. Real nonsupervisory wages are rolling over, and when you combine that with the constant increase in consumer credit, that means a credit-constrained consumer is right around the corner, and that means a recession eventually. Thankfully it only means an old-fashioned one.

Calculated Risk - LA port traffic increases yoy in January. Which is good, it means consumption is still happening.

Polemic's Pains - the diary of a messed up market day. It's nice that someone who knows what he's talking about is being caught flat-footed by the market. Oh, and he bought gold miners.

BBC News - Navalny's name shifts snow. Why isn't Zerohedge all over this story of how people are fighting back against a corrupt government by using censorship to force public workers to do their jobs? Maybe it's because Daniel Ivandjiiski is a paid stooge of Vladimir Putin?

Friday videos: a chart-topping song about meth

This song is apparently about meth. It also went top-10 for 14 weeks.



Also, do you remember Hanson's "Mmm Bop"?

Cos that was a big hit right before this came out. And though it's structurally a lot more simple than this one, it does darn well kinda hit the exact same musical themes. I mean, you could do a mashup of the two.

Just one of them weird things.

Zerohedge didn't carry this story....

I wonder why Zerohedge isn't all over this story about the infringement of people's free speech rights, the banning of websites for critical content, and yadda yadda wharrgarbl?

BBC News - Russia bans YouTube and Instagram. Quote:

YouTube and Instagram face being blocked by Russian internet service providers as a result of a standoff between one of the country's richest businessmen and an opposition leader.

Russia's internet censor blacklisted material on both services after a court ruled that it violated billionaire Oleg Deripaska's privacy rights.

My god! What kind of horrible things were people posting about this fine upstanding Nazi?

Mr Navalny's Anti-corruption Foundation posted a video to YouTube last Thursday in which he presented footage that allegedly showed Mr Deripaska meeting Russia's deputy prime minister Sergei Prikhodko aboard a yacht.

The material was said to have been sourced from a woman's Instagram account, where it had been posted in 2016.

Mr Navalny also uploaded a photo of the "secret meeting" alongside a post detailing corruption claims, to his own Instagram account.

The next day, Mr Deripaska obtained a court order demanding the removal of 14 Instagram posts and seven YouTube clips.

And on Saturday, the government's internet watchdog Roskomnadzor issued the two tech platforms a take-down notice giving them three business days to comply.

Google subsequently wrote to Mr Navalny's team saying it might be forced to block the videos.

But to date, neither it nor Facebook has censored the material.

And given Zerohedge is a paid part of the Russian anti-west disinfo campaign, you'd damn well expect they'd never write an article on this. Right?

Quick point

If you're going to read some blogger's opinion on this morning's CPI reading, better make sure it's a blogger who's not fucking illiterate.

technical analysis

It's amazing how perfectly $VIX intraday is governed by the EMA(10) during a fear spike, like from January 16th to today, and how perfectly it breaks thru the EMA(10) the minute fear subsides.

Too bad there's no ETF to trade this sort of behaviour:

I mean okay there was an ETF, but now some fuckstick trader has wiped it out.

And a quick market comment

Polemic's Pains said he's bought into the market, with a close trailing stop.

Therefore, I assume everyone has done this.

And, I assume anyone with half a brain knows everyone has done this.

Therefore, I assume someone is going to run the stops, probably today.

Therefore, I'm not going to get worried when this market pukes 5% with an empty book.